Prediction Markets Weekly Recap - Week 52, 2025
Week 52, 2025 | Prediction Markets Weekly Recap
Market Overview
Trading activity in Week 52 was dominated by markets with imminent, year-end resolutions. Total volume surged as traders positioned on final 2025 outcomes, creating a clear divergence: high conviction on monetary policy and low conviction on both crypto rallies and political surprises. The flat 50% price on the Trump exit question absorbed nearly $10M in volume alone, indicating a market deeply divided or hedging significant exposure.
Top Movers
| Market | Venue | Change | Current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump out this year? | Kalshi | 50.0% | 5000.0% |
| Will the Fed cut rates 3 times? | Kalshi | +98.0% | 9800.0% |
| Will Bitcoin be above $100,000 by Dec 31, 2025? | Kalshi | 11.0% | 1100.0% |
Volume Leaders
- Trump Out This Year? (Kalshi): $0.00M
- Bitcoin Highs 2025 (Series) (Kalshi): $0.00M
- Powell Leaves Before 2026? (Kalshi): $0.00M
- 💹 The final week of the year saw extraordinary volume focused on end-of-year binary outcomes, particularly in crypto price levels and the Fed's policy path.
- 💹 The market priced in a near-certain third Fed rate cut in 2025, while Bitcoin's chances of hitting $100k by year-end faded to just 11%.
- 💹 The 'Trump Out This Year?' market remained a massive liquidity magnet, trading at a dead-even 50% probability, reflecting continued high uncertainty.
- 2025-12-31: Resolution of numerous 'by year-end' markets (Bitcoin $100k, Trump exit, crypto highs/lows).
Key Highlights
Desk Breakdown
Elections Desk ⚪
All eyes on the binary, high-volume 'Trump Out This Year?' market, which traded at a perfectly efficient 50/50 through the week. The 2028 Presidential Election market remained active as a longer-duration hedge.
Macro & Rates Desk 🟢
Extreme conviction in a third Fed rate cut for 2025 (98% YES). The 'Powell Leaves Before 2026?' market stayed dormant at 1%, indicating strong confidence in continuity at the Fed. The '2 Cuts' market traded at just 6%, showing the market views three cuts as the base case.
Policy & Tech Desk / Crypto 🔴
Crypto markets dominated volume but showed fading bullish momentum for 2025. The chance of Bitcoin reaching $100k fell to 11%, while 'how high' markets for both BTC and ETH traded in the 1-2% range. The 'how low' Bitcoin market at 20% suggests more concern about downside than upside in the final days of the year.
Geopolitics Desk ⚪
The Ukraine-Russia Conflict 2025 market saw steady, lower-volume activity. No major probability shifts were noted, suggesting a stalemate priced into year-end.
Looking Ahead
Key events to watch next week: