US Elections — Trading Context

When to load

When analyzing PM contracts about: elections, polling, candidates, Electoral College, primaries, midterms, special elections.

Instructions

Inject silently. Use to inform analysis.

Electoral Calendar

Presidential: Every 4 years (next: November 2028)

Midterms: 2 years after presidential (next: November 2026) — all 435 House seats + ~33 Senate seats

Primaries: Vary by state, typically March-June of election year

Special elections: Triggered by death/resignation, scheduled individually

Electoral College (Presidential only)

538 total electoral votes. Need 270 to win.

Almost all states are winner-take-all (exceptions: Maine, Nebraska by congressional district)

Only ~7 swing states matter: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina (may shift cycle to cycle)

PM implication: National polling numbers are near-useless. State-level polling in swing states is what drives presidential election PM contracts.

Polling Interpretation

What polls actually measure:

Registered voters (RV) — less predictive, easier to survey

Likely voters (LV) — more predictive, methodologically harder

Systematic biases:

Polls have underestimated Republicans in 2016 and 2020 (non-response bias from lower-trust voters)

Polls overestimated Democrats in 2022 (Dobbs backlash was real but polling captured some)

Don't just read the topline. Read the methodology.

Key polling signals:

Cross-tabs (demographics breakdown) shifting = leading indicator

Likely voter screen tightening = different result than registered voter

Response rate declining = potential non-response bias growing

PM rule: Polls are inputs, not outputs. A 3-point lead in a state with 4-point historical polling error is a toss-up, not a lead.

FEC Filings (Follow the Money)

Real-time filings: quarterly + pre-election reports

Large individual contributions signal donor confidence

Small-dollar fundraising signals grassroots enthusiasm

Candidate self-funding = often a sign the candidate can't raise externally

Leadership PAC activity = signals behind-the-scenes endorsement dynamics

Campaign spending patterns in final weeks reveal internal polling: campaigns pull money from states they've given up on and flood states they think are competitive.

Midterm Dynamics

Historical pattern: The president's party almost always loses House seats in midterms (exceptions: 2002 post-9/11, 2022 Dobbs). Average loss: ~25 seats.

Senate midterms depend heavily on WHICH seats are up (only 1/3 at a time). The map matters more than the national mood.

PM trading: Generic ballot polls + presidential approval rating are the two best predictors for House midterms. For Senate, look at state-by-state polling for contested races.

Primary vs General Election

Primary contracts resolve earlier and have MUCH thinner liquidity. Beware:

Crowded fields = vote splitting makes frontrunner look weaker

Winner-take-all vs proportional delegate allocation varies by party and state

Momentum effects are real but overhyped — early state winners get media boost

Trading Rules

1. Presidential election contracts: ignore national polls. Focus on swing state polls weighted by Electoral College.

2. Polling error is systematic, not random. If polls undercount a candidate in one state, they likely undercount them in similar states.

3. FEC filings are leading indicators. Money flows before polls move.

4. Midterm House: bet against the president's party unless there's a specific catalyst (Dobbs in 2022, 9/11 in 2002)

5. Primary contracts: extremely volatile, thin liquidity, high spread costs. Only trade with strong conviction.

6. Election contracts have a HARD deadline — no extension risk. Time decay is calculable.