Compress, Compute, Execute.
Prediction markets are where real money prices elections, the economy, and world events — minute by minute. SimpleFunctions makes sense of all of it and hands you clear signals, live odds, and the tools to act — for funds, trading desks, and newsrooms.
npm install -g @spfunctions/cliPrediction markets currently assign an 8% probability to a US recession occurring by the end of 2026, with an even lower 29% chance of a recession appearing by the end of 2027. Supporting this outlook, markets also indicate a 61% likelihood of a 'soft landing' scenario by the end of 2026, defined by unemployment staying below 5.0% and inflation below 3.5%. These probabilities suggest investors are currently optimistic about the economy avoiding a contraction despite lingering economic concerns.
The market, computed — live.
Real money moves these markets every minute. Here it is, computed live — the odds, where the crowd splits, the sharpest mispricings, and how our calls have held up.
One API call that compresses the world's markets into 800 tokens.
Thesis-Based Realtime Market Monitoring.
--conviction 5 --horizon 2026-12-31
Autonomous Portfolio Management with Mechanical Risk Gates.
Prediction Market Index.
Data Pipeline for makers and takers.
Open screener →Real-time data feed across Kalshi and Polymarket. Every orderbook change, every price move, every resolution.
Screen endpoint filters thousands of active contracts by five quantitative indicators — implied yield, cliff risk, expected edge, liquidity score, and time decay.
Regime endpoint classifies each market as maker-favorable or taker-favorable based on spread, depth, and flow patterns.
Platform Calibration.
How well-calibrated are prediction markets? Brier score by category across 488,000 resolved contracts.
Congress.gov for agents.
CLI + REST/API + MCP adapter for 425K bills, 538 members, and the prediction markets pricing each one.
Event Probability API
→Live odds for every macro, political, and crypto event — single endpoint, two venues.
Realtime Prediction Market Data
→Streaming prices, orderbooks, and resolutions across live Kalshi and Polymarket markets.
Prediction Market Hedging
→Lay off tail-risk events at the cheapest venue, sized to your portfolio's actual exposure.
SimpleFunctions Daily.
GET /api/public/contextAPI docs →Hub coverage.
81 URLsIndexable market hubs grouped by category, venue, and series. Each row has a page and a JSON twin.
C1 · category
Live regime + 5-indicator panorama per vertical.
C2 · series
Term curve / threshold ladder, every contract enriched with SF signal stack.
GET /api/public/markets/{type}/{slug}15-minute refresh. Available via REST and CLI — GET /api/public/context / sf context.
Custom data, execution, liquidity.
Tuned indicators. Private latency tiers. Dedicated cross-venue routing. Direct integration into the desk stack — or your agent runtime.
For quant research desks, market makers, execution teams, and production agent deployments at scale.
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