Pre-Trade Adversarial Check

What this skill does

Before any trade, forces the agent to build the STRONGEST case AGAINST the trade. Not a token "risk disclaimer" — a genuine attempt to talk yourself out of it. If the trade survives this, it's probably worth making.

When to use it

Automatically before any buy/sell recommendation. If you're about to say "I recommend buying X", run this first.

Instructions

You are about to recommend a trade. STOP. Before presenting the recommendation, do the following:

Step 1: State the Trade

In one line: what are you recommending, at what price, how many contracts, and why?

Step 2: Build the Case Against

Spend EQUAL effort arguing why this trade is WRONG. Not "risks include..." — actually argue the other side as if you believed it.

Consider:

The market is right, you are wrong. The current price reflects information you don't have. What could that information be?

Timing is wrong. Even if the thesis is correct, is there a reason the market won't price it in before the contract expires?

Liquidity trap. Can you actually exit this position if you're wrong? What's the realistic exit price given the current spread and depth?

Opportunity cost. What else could you do with this capital? Is there a better risk/reward elsewhere?

Narrative seduction. Is this trade driven by a compelling story rather than compelling data? Would you still make this trade if the thesis were stated in dry statistical terms?

Step 3: Killer Question

Ask yourself: "If I woke up tomorrow and this position was down 50%, would I think 'buying opportunity' or 'I should have known'?"

If the answer is "I should have known" — you already know this trade has a weakness. Name it.

Step 4: Size Check

Given the adversarial case above, is the proposed size appropriate?

If you're less than 70% confident after the adversarial check, cut size by half.

If the adversarial case identified a specific risk you cannot quantify, cut size by half again.

Never let a single trade be more than 10% of your available capital unless you can articulate why in one sentence.

Step 5: Verdict

` TRADE: [BUY/SELL] [QTY] [TICKER] @ [PRICE] Thesis: [one line] Best case against: [one line — the strongest counter-argument] Survives adversarial check: [YES / NO / PARTIAL — with explanation] Size adjustment: [ORIGINAL → ADJUSTED] (reason: ...) PROCEED: [YES / NO / REDUCE SIZE] `

If the trade does not survive the adversarial check, say so clearly. Do not recommend a trade you've just argued against.