Alternative · Forecasting platform
Futuur vs
SimpleFunctions.
Futuur is a consumer prediction market trading platform — real-money and play-money modes, multi-crypto settlement, seven-plus years of operating history. SimpleFunctions operates at a different layer: a causal-tree thesis system that decomposes any belief into testable sub-claims and scans Kalshi and Polymarket for tradeable edges, Portfolio Autopilot with a 7-gate risk cascade, computed indicators across 48K+ active contracts, and a 56-tool MCP server that drops into Claude Code or Cursor in one line.
Verified 2026-04 · public sources only · live SF data from /calibration
Verdict
Pick the one that fits how
you actually work.
Choose SimpleFunctions if
You are building agents, autonomous research pipelines, or systematic trading strategies that need more than a trading UI — calibrated world-model probabilities backed by public Brier scores, causal-tree thesis modelling with auto-evaluation heartbeats, regime classification and computed indicators (implied yield, cliff risk index, liquidity availability score) across the full Kalshi and Polymarket universe, and a 56-tool MCP server for agent-native integration.
Choose Futuur if
You want a consumer-facing interface to trade prediction markets directly — with real-money or play-money modes, multi-crypto deposit and withdrawal support, and no code required. Futuur has spent seven-plus years building that product for retail forecasters and crypto-native traders.
Futuur is a consumer trading platform with crypto settlement and play-money mode. SimpleFunctions is the developer and agent API layer: world model, theses, indicators, autopilot, MCP.
At a glance
Three things that
actually differ.
Everything Futuur gives you — access to prediction market probabilities and a venue to take positions — SimpleFunctions also gives you in programmatic form, on normalised Kalshi and Polymarket feeds across 48K+ active contracts.
On top of that, SF ships a causal-tree thesis system, Portfolio Autopilot (1M-context LLM, 7-gate risk cascade), computed indicators (IY, CRI, LAS, EE, τ-days), and 56 MCP tools no current PM trading platform exposes.
SF also publishes live Brier scores at /api/calibration — Kalshi 0.20, Polymarket 0.12 on T-24h price, past 90 days. Most platforms claim accuracy; SF lets you verify ours.
Side by side
10 dimensions · verified 2026-04SimpleFunctionsKalshi and Polymarket normalised, 48K+ active contracts indexed at /api/public/markets.
FutuurFutuur operates its own proprietary market platform; cross-venue normalisation across Kalshi and Polymarket is not its scope.
SimpleFunctionsGET /api/public/market/{ticker}?depth=true returns bid/ask ladder, spread, and slippage estimate.
FutuurPlatform UI for placing orders; no public orderbook API documented.
SimpleFunctionsImplied yield, cliff risk index, liquidity availability score, event overround, τ-days, and regime label pre-computed across 48K contracts at /screen.
FutuurNot published; Futuur is a trading interface, not a signals platform.
SimpleFunctionsLive Brier scores at /api/calibration — by venue, category, and price bucket; publicly verifiable with curl.
FutuurNot published.
SimpleFunctionsPOST /api/thesis/create decomposes any sentence into a causal tree, scans for tradeable edges on Kalshi and Polymarket, and runs an evaluation heartbeat with news scan and confidence updates.
FutuurNot in scope; Futuur is a trading venue, not a thesis-modelling system.
SimpleFunctionsPortfolio Autopilot uses a 1M-context LLM and a 7-gate risk cascade (kill switch, position limits, drawdown gate, regime check) before execution.
FutuurNot in scope.
SimpleFunctions56 tools via `claude mcp add simplefunctions --url https://simplefunctions.dev/api/mcp/mcp`; works with Claude Code, Cursor, any MCP client.
FutuurNo MCP server published.
SimpleFunctionsSF is an API and agent layer, not a trading venue; it does not handle deposits or withdrawals.
FutuurMulti-crypto deposit and withdrawal support for real-money positions.
SimpleFunctionsNot applicable; SF targets programmatic and agent-driven workflows.
FutuurPlay-money mode for practice forecasting alongside real-money markets.
SimpleFunctionsPublic REST, MCP, and CLI reads require no auth. Authenticated thesis and intent execution is free up to 15M tokens, then pay-per-token.
FutuurNo specific pricing details available in publicly reviewed sources.
Methodology
Verified 2026-04 from public sources only — Futuur's documentation, public website, and publicly observable behaviour. We never claim non-public information about Futuur's internals. SimpleFunctions claims on this page are computed live from /api/calibration, /api/public/cross-venue/pairs, and /api/public/markets — you can re-verify them yourself with curl.
Use cases
Same data, different
best fit per scenario.
Scenario 01
Building an AI agent that researches and trades prediction markets autonomously.
SimpleFunctions · best fit
SF's 56-tool MCP server, Portfolio Autopilot, and causal thesis system are purpose-built for this. The agent can decompose a thesis, scan for edges on Kalshi and Polymarket, and execute through the 7-gate risk cascade.
Futuur
Futuur is a consumer trading platform and does not expose a programmatic API for autonomous agents.
Scenario 02
A retail forecaster who wants to trade prediction markets using cryptocurrency with no coding required.
SimpleFunctions
SF is an API and developer toolset; it does not provide a consumer trading interface or accept crypto deposits.
Futuur · best fit
Futuur is purpose-built for this: real-money and play-money modes, multi-crypto deposits, and a consumer UI with seven-plus years of operating history. This is the scenario Futuur wins clearly.
Scenario 03
Decomposing a complex macroeconomic thesis into a tree of testable sub-claims linked to live market contracts.
SimpleFunctions · best fit
POST /api/thesis/create handles this end-to-end: causal decomposition, contract matching on Kalshi and Polymarket, probability propagation, and an auto-evaluation heartbeat that refreshes confidence as news and prices move.
Futuur
Futuur provides a trading interface, not a thesis-modelling or causal-decomposition system.
Scenario 04
Integrating prediction market data into a Claude or Cursor workflow via MCP.
SimpleFunctions · best fit
One command — `claude mcp add simplefunctions` — installs 56 tools covering prices, orderbook, indicators, thesis creation, and world snapshot. No additional authentication required for read operations.
Futuur
Futuur does not publish an MCP server.
Live data
The SimpleFunctions claims on this page are not marketing copy. Brier scores, market counts, and cross-venue pair counts are computed live from /calibration, /screen, and /api/public/cross-venue/pairs. All public, all free, all CC-BY-4.0.
FAQ
What is Futuur and how does it differ from SimpleFunctions?+
Futuur is a consumer prediction market trading platform: users deposit crypto, take real-money or play-money positions on market outcomes, and manage a portfolio through a web interface. SimpleFunctions is a developer and agent API layer — it provides normalised data, computed indicators, a causal thesis system, Portfolio Autopilot, and 56 MCP tools across Kalshi and Polymarket. The two products serve different audiences and are rarely in direct competition.
Can I use SimpleFunctions to trade on Futuur's markets?+
No. SimpleFunctions connects to Kalshi and Polymarket for both data reads and, via authenticated intents, order execution. Futuur operates its own proprietary platform with separate market listings, and SF does not integrate with it. If you want to trade on Futuur's markets specifically, you would use Futuur's own interface directly.
How does SimpleFunctions' causal thesis system work?+
POST /api/thesis/create accepts a plain-language sentence — for example, 'The Fed will cut rates twice in 2026.' SF decomposes it into a causal tree of testable sub-claims, matches each node to live contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket, propagates implied probabilities up the tree, and runs an evaluation heartbeat: news scan, price refresh, milestone check, LLM evaluation, and confidence update. You can inject external signals via /api/thesis/{id}/signal, and public theses are forkable.
What is Portfolio Autopilot and how does it manage risk?+
Portfolio Autopilot is SF's autonomous trading agent. It uses a 1M-context LLM and 13 data sources to generate trade decisions, but every decision passes through a 7-gate risk cascade before execution: kill switch, position limits, drawdown gate, regime check, and additional guards. The system can refuse to execute even when it has a trade idea — risk gates are hard blocks, not soft suggestions.
Does SimpleFunctions have an MCP server, and how do I connect it?+
Yes. SF ships a 56-tool MCP server. To connect in Claude Code or any MCP client, run: `claude mcp add simplefunctions --url https://simplefunctions.dev/api/mcp/mcp`. The server exposes tools for prices, orderbook depth, thesis creation, world snapshot, computed indicators, cross-venue arbitrage pairs, and more — no authentication required for read operations.
What calibration data does SimpleFunctions publish, and why does it matter?+
SF publishes its own Brier scores at /api/calibration, broken down by venue, category, and price bucket. Current figures: Kalshi 0.20, Polymarket 0.12 on T-24h prices over the past 90 days. These are computed live from SF's own predictions and are publicly verifiable with curl. Most prediction market data products do not publish calibration data for their own signals, which makes independent accuracy assessment impossible.
Which product is better for non-technical users who want to forecast and trade?+
Futuur. It has a consumer-facing trading interface, real-money and play-money modes, and multi-crypto deposit support — all accessible without writing code. SimpleFunctions is designed for developers, researchers, and agents that consume prediction market data programmatically. If you do not intend to write code or build automated systems, Futuur is the more appropriate choice.
Start for free.
Public endpoints are free for normal usage and rate-limited for reliability. Authenticated endpoints are free up to 15M tokens, then pay per token. No credit card to start.