Alternative · On-chain market
Myriad Markets vs
SimpleFunctions.
Myriad Markets is an on-chain prediction platform built around media properties — Decrypt and Rug Radio — settling positions in the USD1 stablecoin. SimpleFunctions operates one layer higher: a causal-tree thesis system that decomposes any claim into testable sub-hypotheses and runs an autonomous evaluation cycle, a Portfolio Autopilot with a 1M-context LLM and 7-gate risk cascade, and a 56-tool MCP server that connects to Claude Code in one line — all running on top of Kalshi and Polymarket's combined 48K+ active contracts.
Verified 2026-04 · public sources only · live SF data from /calibration
Verdict
Pick the one that fits how
you actually work.
Choose SimpleFunctions if
You are building agents, autonomous trading systems, or research pipelines that need more than a trading interface — calibrated probabilities with public Brier scores, causal-tree thesis modelling with auto-evaluation cycles, regime classification across the full 48K-contract universe, computed indicators (implied yield, cliff risk, liquidity availability score), and a 56-tool MCP server that integrates with Claude Code or Cursor in one line.
Choose Myriad Markets if
You want to participate in an on-chain prediction market embedded directly in crypto media — Decrypt editorial coverage and Rug Radio content sit alongside the markets themselves, and positions settle natively in the USD1 stablecoin. That media-native, crypto-first consumer experience is Myriad's specific product focus.
Myriad is an on-chain consumer market with media integration and USD1 settlement. SimpleFunctions is an agent-first API layer on Kalshi and Polymarket: thesis system, autopilot, MCP. Different audiences.
At a glance
Three things that
actually differ.
Everything Myriad Markets gives you — a prediction market trading platform with curated discovery and media context — SimpleFunctions also gives you: market prices, orderbook depth, cross-venue data, and trade ideas across Kalshi and Polymarket.
On top of that, SF ships a causal-tree thesis system with auto-evaluation cycles, a Portfolio Autopilot (1M-context LLM, 7-gate risk cascade), computed indicators across 48K contracts, and 56 MCP tools no current PM platform exposes.
SF publishes live Brier scores for its own predictions at /api/calibration — Kalshi 0.20, Polymarket 0.12 on T-24h price, past 90 days — so you can audit accuracy before building on it.
Side by side
10 dimensions · verified 2026-04SimpleFunctionsKalshi and Polymarket normalised, 48K+ active contracts indexed and screened.
Myriad MarketsMyriad's own on-chain markets, integrated with Decrypt and Rug Radio media properties.
SimpleFunctionsAPI-only; routes through Kalshi and Polymarket's native settlement infrastructure.
Myriad MarketsOn-chain settlement in the USD1 stablecoin.
SimpleFunctionsNo media property integration; signal injection via /api/thesis/{id}/signal and external news scans in the evaluation heartbeat.
Myriad MarketsMarkets are embedded alongside Decrypt editorial content and Rug Radio programming.
SimpleFunctionsGET /api/public/market/{ticker}?depth=true — bid/ask ladder, spread, and slippage estimates.
Myriad MarketsNot documented in publicly available sources.
SimpleFunctionsImplied yield, cliff risk index, liquidity availability score, event overround, τ-days, and regime label — pre-computed across all 48K contracts at /screen.
Myriad MarketsNot documented in publicly available sources.
SimpleFunctionsPOST /api/thesis/create decomposes any sentence into a causal tree, scans for tradeable edges, and runs an evaluation heartbeat with news scan, price refresh, and LLM confidence update.
Myriad MarketsNot in scope.
SimpleFunctionsPortfolio Autopilot uses a 1M-context LLM and a 7-gate risk cascade (kill switch, position limits, drawdown gate, regime check) before every execution.
Myriad MarketsNot in scope.
SimpleFunctions56 tools via claude mcp add simplefunctions --url https://simplefunctions.dev/api/mcp/mcp — works with Claude Code, Cursor, and any MCP client.
Myriad MarketsNo MCP server published.
SimpleFunctionsLive Brier scores at /api/calibration — by venue, category, and price bucket — Kalshi 0.20, Polymarket 0.12 on T-24h price, past 90 days.
Myriad MarketsNot published.
SimpleFunctionsPublic REST, MCP, and CLI reads require no auth. Authenticated thesis and intent execution: free up to 15M tokens, then pay-per-token.
Myriad MarketsPricing not publicly documented in verifiable sources; check myriad.markets directly.
Methodology
Verified 2026-04 from public sources only — Myriad Markets's documentation, public website, and publicly observable behaviour. We never claim non-public information about Myriad Markets's internals. SimpleFunctions claims on this page are computed live from /api/calibration, /api/public/cross-venue/pairs, and /api/public/markets — you can re-verify them yourself with curl.
Use cases
Same data, different
best fit per scenario.
Scenario 01
Building an AI agent that continuously monitors prediction markets, generates trade hypotheses, and executes positions autonomously.
SimpleFunctions · best fit
SF was built for this workflow. The causal thesis system decomposes claims into a monitored causal tree, the 56-tool MCP server exposes every data surface to your agent, and Portfolio Autopilot handles execution behind a 7-gate risk cascade.
Myriad Markets
Myriad is a consumer trading platform, not an API layer. There is no documented programmatic agent integration.
Scenario 02
A crypto-native trader who wants to trade prediction markets directly from within Decrypt articles or Rug Radio content.
SimpleFunctions
SF has no media property integration. It is an API and agent layer, not an embedded consumer experience.
Myriad Markets · best fit
This is Myriad's core product. Markets are surfaced in context alongside the Decrypt and Rug Radio content that informs them, and positions settle in USD1 stablecoin without leaving the media environment.
Scenario 03
Decomposing a complex macro or geopolitical claim into a tree of testable sub-claims with live market prices attached to each node.
SimpleFunctions · best fit
POST /api/thesis/create accepts a plain-English sentence and returns a causal sub-claim tree, each node priced against matching Kalshi and Polymarket contracts. An evaluation heartbeat scans news and updates confidence on a running cycle.
Myriad Markets
Myriad does not offer a thesis decomposition or causal modelling capability.
Scenario 04
Scanning for cross-venue arbitrage between Kalshi and Polymarket with live orderbook depth.
SimpleFunctions · best fit
GET /api/public/cross-venue/pairs?preset=arb returns matched contract pairs with normalised prices. Orderbook depth is available per-contract at /api/public/market/{ticker}?depth=true.
Myriad Markets
Myriad operates its own on-chain market and does not expose Kalshi or Polymarket data.
Live data
The SimpleFunctions claims on this page are not marketing copy. Brier scores, market counts, and cross-venue pair counts are computed live from /calibration, /screen, and /api/public/cross-venue/pairs. All public, all free, all CC-BY-4.0.
FAQ
What is SimpleFunctions' causal thesis system?+
POST /api/thesis/create accepts a plain-English sentence and decomposes it into a causal tree of testable sub-claims. Each node is matched to tradeable contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket, with probabilities propagated through the tree. An evaluation heartbeat then runs on a continuous cycle: news scan, price refresh, milestone check, LLM evaluation, and confidence update. You can inject external signals via /api/thesis/{id}/signal. Public theses are forkable. No other prediction market data product offers this.
What is Portfolio Autopilot and how does it manage risk?+
Portfolio Autopilot is SF's autonomous trading agent. It uses a 1M-context LLM processing 13 data sources and passes every prospective trade through a 7-gate risk cascade before execution: kill switch, position limits, drawdown gate, regime check, and additional safeguards. It is designed for continuous, unattended operation with human-readable audit trails at every gate. This is distinct from a signal or alert product — it executes.
Does SimpleFunctions cover Myriad Markets' on-chain contracts?+
No. SimpleFunctions indexes Kalshi and Polymarket contracts — over 48,000 active at time of writing. Myriad Markets operates its own on-chain prediction market, separate from those venues. If your workflow specifically requires trading on Myriad's on-chain markets, SF does not provide that coverage. SF and Myriad serve largely non-overlapping market inventories.
How does SF's calibration data work, and why does it matter?+
GET /api/calibration returns SF's own Brier scores broken down by venue, category, and price bucket. Kalshi is 0.20 and Polymarket is 0.12 on T-24h price, computed over the past 90 days. A lower Brier score means the probabilities SF surfaces are closer to actual outcomes. Publishing this publicly means you can audit SF's accuracy before building on it — most competitors claim accuracy without letting you verify.
What can I do with SF's 56-tool MCP server?+
Run claude mcp add simplefunctions --url https://simplefunctions.dev/api/mcp/mcp and every SF capability becomes a tool your agent can call natively: scan contracts, retrieve orderbook depth, query cross-venue pairs, create and update theses, read computed indicators, and trigger intent execution. It works with Claude Code, Cursor, and any client that implements the Model Context Protocol. No custom integration code required.
Who is Myriad Markets designed for?+
Myriad Markets targets crypto-native participants who want to trade prediction markets in context — within Decrypt articles or Rug Radio content — with on-chain settlement in the USD1 stablecoin. It raised $20M in February 2026 and is built around a media-embedded trading experience. If that consumer, crypto-native workflow is what you need, SF is not a substitute.
Does SF have a command-line interface?+
Yes. Install with npm i -g @spfunctions/cli (MIT licensed). The CLI exposes 60+ commands covering market data retrieval, thesis management, cross-venue pair scanning, and intent execution. It reads from the same endpoints as the REST API and MCP server, so output is consistent across all three surfaces.
Start for free.
Public endpoints are free for normal usage and rate-limited for reliability. Authenticated endpoints are free up to 15M tokens, then pay per token. No credit card to start.