Pricediction vs
SimpleFunctions.

SimpleFunctions' thesis system starts from a plain-language hypothesis. POST /api/thesis/create decomposes it into a causal tree of testable sub-claims, assigns each a probability, scans Kalshi and Polymarket for contracts that represent tradeable edges, and runs a continuous evaluation heartbeat: news scan, price refresh, milestone check, LLM re-evaluation, confidence update. Signals can be injected at any time via /api/thesis/{id}/signal. Pricediction's automated analysis surfaces relevant markets but does not expose structured causal decomposition or auto-evaluation cycles as a documented feature.

Portfolio Autopilot is an autonomous trading agent, not a web interface. A 1M-context LLM evaluates 13 data sources — price feeds, orderbook depth, thesis signals, calibration baselines, regime labels, and more — and passes every proposed action through a 7-gate risk cascade: kill switch, position limits, drawdown gate, regime check, and additional safeguards before any order is placed. The result is a system that can operate without human sign-off on each trade, unlike a browser-based direct trading interface where a human reviews and confirms each action.

SF is API-first: REST endpoints, a 60-command CLI, and a 56-tool MCP server. A /screen page exposes pre-computed indicators across all active contracts as a browsable table, but there is no purpose-built point-and-click trade execution workflow for human operators. If your primary use case is browser-based research and manual order placement rather than agent or programmatic integration, Pricediction's web interface is the product designed for that workflow.

SF pre-computes six indicators across all 48K+ active Kalshi and Polymarket contracts: IY (implied yield, annualised return if YES), CRI (cliff risk index, residual risk near expiry), LAS (liquidity availability score, deployable capital before significant slippage), EE (event overround, total market vig), τ-days (time to settlement), and regime label (adverse-selection classification). All six are available at /screen and via the MCP server. Pricediction's derived indicator set is not publicly documented.

SF publishes live Brier scores at /api/calibration, broken down by venue, category, and price bucket. Current figures: Kalshi 0.20, Polymarket 0.12 on T-24h price, computed over the past 90 days. The endpoint is live and re-verifiable with a single curl call at any time. Most prediction market data products claim accuracy in general terms but do not expose a structured, queryable calibration baseline. Pricediction does not publish equivalent accuracy metrics in its reviewed public documentation.

SimpleFunctions ships a 56-tool MCP server at https://simplefunctions.dev/api/mcp/mcp. Add it in one line: claude mcp add simplefunctions --url https://simplefunctions.dev/api/mcp/mcp. Once connected, any MCP client — Claude Code, Cursor, or any compliant runtime — can call all 56 tools directly: market lookup, thesis creation, autopilot instructions, calibration checks, cross-venue arbitrage scan, and more. No API key is required for read operations. Pricediction does not publish an MCP server.

Yes. The two products occupy different surfaces. Pricediction is a web research and trading workflow. SimpleFunctions is an API, CLI, and MCP server. If you use Pricediction for point-and-click research and manual execution, you can simultaneously use SF's MCP server inside Claude Code to drive agent workflows, or use SF's thesis system to evaluate the same markets programmatically. The underlying venues — Kalshi and Polymarket — are the same, so signals from one context carry into the other.

SF normalises Kalshi and Polymarket contracts into matched pairs so that equivalent contracts are directly comparable across venues. Arbitrage opportunities are available at /api/public/cross-venue/pairs?preset=arb. Orderbook depth for slippage estimation is at GET /api/public/market/{ticker}?depth=true. Trade ideas with conviction scores and catalysts are at /api/public/ideas. These endpoints are publicly accessible without authentication and are re-verifiable in real time.