SimpleFunctions

Crypto.

Where the orderbook moves before the chart does.

BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP — Kalshi runs the regulated 15-minute and daily ladders; Polymarket runs the long-dated price targets, ETF flow markets, and halving contracts. SimpleFunctions normalizes both venues, scores depth and spread, surfaces edges, and pings the heartbeat when the book shifts. CLI, REST/Data API, MCP adapter, BYOK on the venues.

GET /api/public/markets?keyword=bitcoin+ethereumopen endpoint
Screener·Heartbeat·Edge discovery
A medieval alchemist at his workbench with alembic, candle, and codex — the original cryptocurrency operator, transmuting one form of value into another

Medieval alchemist with alembic and codex — the original transmutation of value into a new ledger.

What we cover, per ladder

Every venue, every horizon — same shape.

Crypto contracts span six time-shapes (15-min, daily, range, monthly, yearly-high, ETF flow) on two venues. The runtime normalizes all of them into one feed and one intent shape.

ladderTick

15-minute up/down (KXBTC15M, KXETH15M, KXSOL15M, KXXRP15M) re-checked on every venue tick.

dailyContract

KXBTCD, KXETHD: daily above/below; settles at session close. The bread-and-butter.

rangeBucket

KXBTC, KXETH range markets: which $1k bucket is the daily close in? Multi-outcome.

yearlyMax

KXBTCMAXY, KXETHMAXY: year-end high target ladders. Long-dated, thinner book.

polymarketPair

Matched Polymarket BTC/ETH/SOL price-target contracts; same event, different USDC pool.

etfFlowContract

BTC and ETH spot-ETF flow markets; weekly resolution against published flow data.

halvingMarket

BTC halving timing + post-halving range contracts. Sparse but reliable settlement.

Why a unified crypto scan beats six tabs

ApproachWhat it gives youWhere it breaks

Six tabs of venue UIs

You see every market individually

No cross-venue match, no normalized depth, blink and the 15-min ladder resolves

Generic crypto bot

Trades perps; cheap to start

Has zero clue about Kalshi event-contract structure or Polymarket conditional shape

Discord alpha group

Sometimes ahead of the wire on flow

No depth math, no kill conditions, no audit trail, no agent path

SimpleFunctions Crypto

One scan across BTC/ETH/SOL on Kalshi and Polymarket

Surfaces only when post-slippage edge clears floor and depth covers size

Live crypto markets

Will Bitcoin be above $149999.99 by Jun 30, 2026 at 11:59pm ET?
—¢kalshi
Will Bitcoin be above $149999.99 by Jul 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET?
—¢kalshi
Will Bitcoin be above $149999.99 by Aug 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET?
—¢kalshi
Will Bitcoin be above $149999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET?
—¢kalshi
Bitcoin price on May 9, 2026?
—¢kalshi
Bitcoin price on May 9, 2026?
—¢kalshi
Bitcoin price on May 9, 2026?
—¢kalshi
Bitcoin price on May 9, 2026?
—¢kalshi

Who runs the crypto loop

Six recurring shapes — directional ladders, range buckets, ETF flow, and cross-asset hedges. The runtime keeps the candidate list ranked.

On-chain funds

BTC and ETH event contracts as cheap convexity against the perp book; matched legs both venues.

Range traders

KXBTC bucket markets re-priced against your CVaR + realized vol model; armed intents on edges.

ETF flow watchers

BTC + ETH spot-ETF flow contracts; thesis re-evaluates on the IBIT / FBTC / ETHA daily flow tape.

Macro-crypto desks

BTC/Fed/CPI cross-thesis: rate cuts → BTC → halving → recession contracts in one tree.

DAO treasuries

Hedge BTC/ETH treasury exposure with cash-settled daily contracts; BYOK on your exchange of record.

Agent-managed bots

LLM agent reads the crypto theme context, picks ladders, declares intents — runtime handles timing.

Crypto endpoints

Same shape across CLI, REST/API, and MCP adapter. Scan, watch, declare intent — agents and humans hit the same surface.

API reference

Crypto context

GET /api/public/context?topics=cryptoopen

Live crypto markets

GET /api/public/markets?keyword=bitcoin+ethereum+solanaopen

Crypto edges feed

GET /api/public/edges?theme=crypto&minEdge=6open

Watch a contract

GET /v1/orderbook/KXBTCD-26APR-T84000open

MCP adapter

mcp call simplefunctions.context { topics: ["crypto"] }open

A crypto tick, end-to-end

Plain-English thesis to monitored book in five steps; the heartbeat handles the timing.

1 · scan crypto
$ sf scan crypto

CRYPTO — 47 markets, K + PM
SERIES                       BID  ASK  SPR  VOL
KXBTCD-26APR-T84000          48¢  49¢  1¢   $12.4k
KXBTC15M-UP                  62¢  63¢  1¢    $8.1k
PM BTC > $90k Apr            71¢  73¢  2¢   $45.0k
PM BTC > $100k Apr           25¢  28¢  3¢   $22.3k
KXETHD-26APR-T2400           41¢  43¢  2¢    $4.8k
2 · write thesis
$ sf thesis create \
  'BTC stays above $80k through Q2 2026, ETF
   flows positive 4 of next 6 weeks'

✓ Causal tree built — 5 nodes, 9 markets matched
  · BTC > $80k                → KXBTC range
  · BTC monthly Apr           → PM monthly target
  · ETF flow positive         → PM ETF flow
  · ETH > $2.4k cross         → KXETHD ladders
  · No major exchange outage  → kill condition
3 · surface edges
$ sf edges --thesis btc-q2-26 --min-edge 6

PM BTC > $90k Apr YES
  market 71¢ · implied 78¢ · edge +7¢
  spread 2¢ · depth $45k · liquidity ★high

KXETHD-26APR-T2400 YES
  market 41¢ · implied 48¢ · edge +7¢
  spread 2¢ · depth $4.8k · medium

PM ETF flow positive (next 6w) YES
  market 56¢ · implied 64¢ · edge +8¢
4 · arm + heartbeat
$ sf intent buy 'PM BTC > $90k Apr' 200 \
    --price 73 --trigger below:71 \
    --kill below:60000_btc_spot \
    --kill news:'binance halt withdrawals'

✓ Intent armed — heartbeat 15 min
  Trigger: PM market below 71¢
  Kill:    BTC spot below $60k OR Binance halt

Series we cover

Every Kalshi crypto series + the major Polymarket crypto conditionals. Live tape via /api/public/markets.

KXBTCD

BTC daily above/below

KXBTC15M

BTC 15-minute up/down

KXBTC

BTC range buckets

KXBTCMAXY

BTC year-end high

KXETHD

ETH daily above/below

KXETH15M

ETH 15-minute up/down

KXETHMAXY

ETH year-end high

KXSOL15M

SOL 15-minute up/down

KXXRP15M

XRP 15-minute up/down

PM-BTC

Polymarket BTC monthly targets

PM-ETH

Polymarket ETH year-end

PM-ETF

BTC + ETH spot-ETF flow

FAQ

How do I track Bitcoin prediction markets across Kalshi and Polymarket?

SimpleFunctions normalizes BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP contracts across both venues into one shape. Run sf scan crypto for the live tape, sf watch bitcoin for a streaming feed, or call /api/public/markets?keyword=bitcoin via REST. Contracts include 15-minute (KXBTC15M), daily (KXBTCD), range (KXBTC), yearly high (KXBTCMAXY), plus all Polymarket BTC/ETH/SOL price-target markets.

What is special about Kalshi 15-minute BTC contracts?

Kalshi runs a continuous ladder of 15-minute BTC up/down contracts that settle in cash within the quarter-hour. They are tight, fast, and great for high-frequency directional plays — but the spread can flip on a single block confirmation. You need automated scanning and depth monitoring to trade them safely; that is exactly what the heartbeat does.

How does cross-venue arbitrage work for crypto?

BTC daily contracts often diverge between Kalshi and Polymarket because the venues attract different flow (US-regulated retail vs USDC-on-chain). The runtime matches contracts (e.g., Kalshi "BTC > $90k Apr" vs Polymarket "BTC above $90k"), scores both orderbooks for depth, and surfaces the spread when post-slippage edge clears your floor.

Can I get alerts when crypto odds shift?

Yes. Write a thesis ("BTC stays above $80k through Q2"), arm a kill condition ("BTC futures break below $76k"), and the heartbeat re-evaluates every 15 minutes. Alerts ship via webhook, Telegram, Slack, or email. Out-of-band ticks fire on ETF flow events, halving timing, or major exchange outages.

Does the runtime actually place trades on Kalshi or Polymarket?

Yes — through your venue credentials (BYOK). You arm an intent (action, size, max price, trigger, kill), the runtime fires when conditions match. Orders execute against your Kalshi or Polymarket account; SimpleFunctions is not a broker, custodian, or exchange.

What about Polymarket ETF, halving, and on-chain markets?

Covered. /api/public/markets includes BTC ETF flow contracts, halving timing markets, ETH staking-yield contracts, SOL price targets, and any other Polymarket conditional you can search for. Liquidity scoring and edge detection apply to all of them.

How do I run an on-chain perp hedge against a Polymarket position?

Cross-asset hedging is supported via the same intent shape — arm a Polymarket BUY of "BTC above $90k" and a paired short via your perp connector, with both legs settling on the same trigger. Currently we expose the intent shape; perp execution is BYOK against your dYdX / Hyperliquid / GMX account.

Which crypto contracts move the most volume?

On Kalshi: KXBTCD (daily BTC) and KXBTC range markets carry the largest open interest. On Polymarket: BTC monthly price targets and ETH year-end targets dominate. The screener at /screen with the crypto theme filter keeps the live ranking.

Is there a free tier?

Yes. Public endpoints (/api/public/markets, /api/public/edges, /api/public/context) are CC-BY-4.0 licensed and free, no auth. Authenticated execution endpoints (intents, orders, BYOK) are metered. The CLI is open source.

Can an AI agent run a crypto thesis?

Yes. The CLI is the first-class surface for local agents, the HTTP APIs are the network surface, and MCP is available as an adapter for compatible hosts. A typical loop: read context for crypto theme, list edges, write a thesis tree, declare intents, monitor fills. Agents tend to run 15-minute thesis review + immediate kill triggers on price breaks.

Related surfaces

Prediction market screener

Filter by 24h volume, theme, IY, cliff risk — drop-in venue normalizer.

Edge discovery

How thesis-vs-market edges are surfaced and ranked.

Heartbeat engine

24/7 monitoring + thesis re-evaluation across both venues.

Macro traders

Oil, Fed, CPI, recession — same loop, macro lens.

Quant trading

Microstructure, depth-adjusted edge, regime detection.

Portfolio Autopilot

Full LLM agent that runs the crypto loop on a schedule.

Prediction market API

CLI, REST/Data API, real-time streams, MCP adapter.