For macro traders
You track oil, rates, and geopolitics.
Prediction markets are your leading indicator.
We monitor them for you.
Tell us your macro thesis. The system decomposes it into testable claims, scans Kalshi and Polymarket for mispriced contracts, and monitors everything 24/7 — news, prices, orderbook shifts. You get notified when something changes.
What you're doing now
Manual
Refreshing Kalshi and Polymarket tabs. Comparing odds across venues. Checking if spreads moved. Every 30 minutes, all day.
Reactive
Iran strikes, oil spikes, you find out from Twitter. By the time you check the contracts, the move already happened. You're always late.
Fragmented
Your thesis is in your head. Your positions are on Kalshi. Your news sources are everywhere. Nothing is connected. You can't see the full picture.
What changes
You state your macro view
"Iran conflict keeps oil above $100 through 2026" — plain English.
The system builds a causal model
Your thesis is decomposed into testable sub-claims: Hormuz disruption probability, OPEC response, demand shock. Each with a probability.
Markets are scanned for mispricings
Kalshi and Polymarket — every contract related to your thesis. Where market price diverges from your model: that's an edge.
24/7 autonomous monitoring
Every 15 minutes: news scanned, prices refreshed, orderbook depth analyzed, milestones tracked. When something changes, you know.
You get briefings, not noise
Webhook, Telegram, or API polling. Confidence changed +5%? New edge opened? Orderbook depth shifted? You see exactly what changed and why.
Macro topics we cover
Oil & Energy
Fed & Rates
Inflation / CPI
Recession
Geopolitics
Treasury Yields
USD/JPY & Forex
GDP
Unemployment
Central Banks
S&P 500 & Nasdaq
Tariffs
Elections
Crypto / BTC
Iran / Hormuz
Government Shutdown
18 topics across Kalshi + Polymarket. Orderbook depth, spread, liquidity score for every contract.
What a monitoring briefing looks like
▲ Confidence 81% → 83% (+2)
Eval: "Hormuz shipping volume dropped 40% this week. Three tankers diverted. Oil futures responding."
Top edges:
WTI $135 Dec mkt 48¢ → thesis 65¢ edge +17 spread 1¢ high liq
Gas $4.50 Mar mkt 14¢ → thesis 55¢ edge +41 spread 2¢ high liq
Recession 2026 mkt 35¢ → thesis 55¢ edge +20 spread 3¢ med liq
Orderbook signal: "WTI $135 — buyers aggressive (2.4x depth ratio), spread narrowing 3¢→1¢"
Get started in 2 minutes
Option A: CLI
npm install -g @spfunctions/cli sf setup sf create "Iran conflict keeps oil above $100 through 2026" # monitoring starts automatically
Option B: API
POST /api/thesis/create
{ "rawThesis": "Iran conflict keeps oil above $100 through 2026" }
# Poll for updates:
GET /api/thesis/:id/changes?since=2026-03-21T00:00:00Z
# → { "changed": true, "confidenceDelta": 0.02, "summary": "..." }Option C: Talk to us
We set up your thesis, configure monitoring, and deliver daily briefings. You just read.
Book a 30-min onboarding call →Free to start. No credit card.