For policy analysts
Prediction markets know
what's going to happen in DC
before the press release.
Government shutdowns, Fed rate decisions, cabinet changes, tariff escalations — Kalshi and Polymarket price these events in real-time. SimpleFunctions monitors the odds 24/7 and tells you when something shifts.
Topics we track
Government Shutdown
Will it happen? How long?
Fed Rate Decisions
Cut/hold/hike probabilities
Elections
Presidential, Senate, House, global
Tariffs
China, EU, Canada, Mexico, India rates
Geopolitics
Iran, Hormuz, Taiwan, leadership changes
Executive Orders
What will the President sign this week?
Cabinet Changes
Who leaves next? Confirmation odds
Central Banks
BoJ, ECB, BoE, PBoC decisions
GDP & Recession
Growth forecasts, recession probability
How it works
1. Tell us what you're watching — "Will the government shut down before April?"
2. The system finds every related contract on Kalshi + Polymarket and tracks their odds.
3. Every 15 minutes: news scanned, odds refreshed, confidence recalculated.
4. You get notified when odds shift significantly — via webhook, Telegram, or email.
Example alert
▼ Government Shutdown: confidence dropped 72% → 58% (-14)
"Senate passed continuing resolution 54-46. House vote expected Thursday."
Related markets:
KXGOVSHUT-26APR 58¢ (was 72¢) -14¢
Polymarket: Shutdown by April 55¢ (was 70¢) -15¢
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