Policy.

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Where DC repricing meets the orderbook.

Government shutdowns, FOMC decisions, tariff escalation, election cycles, executive actions, geopolitics, regulatory shifts — tracked through Kalshi and Polymarket prediction-market odds, with causal thesis trees and 24/7 heartbeat monitoring. Out-of-band ticks on Senate / House / SCOTUS / FOMC events. CLI, REST/API, MCP adapter, BYOK.

GET /api/public/context?topics=policyopen endpoint

Legislation tracker·Macro·Heartbeat

The Congress of Vienna 1814-15 in the Hofburg Palace — Metternich, Talleyrand, Castlereagh, and the diplomatic corps redrawing the post-Napoleonic map of Europe across a velvet-draped table

Congress of Vienna · 1814 — every kind of policy at once, every country at one table. The original cross-venue policy desk.

What the policy loop tracks

Seven fields per thesis. Out-of-band ticks on event dates.

Policy is not a stream of headlines — it is a tree of conditional claims (Senate passage, House vote, presidential signature, court action) that fire and falsify together. The runtime tracks the tree, the matched contracts, the edges, the kills, and the calendar.

thesisTree

Plain-English policy view → causal tree of testable sub-claims, each mapped to live contracts.

contractMap

Each leaf gets one or more matched Kalshi + Polymarket contracts; cross-venue spread tracked.

killChain

News patterns + market levels that auto-cancel intents on falsification.

regimeLabel

Trending / ranging / dispersing per topic — modulates Kelly multiplier.

eventCalendar

FOMC / CPI / NFP / Senate floor / House vote / SCOTUS dates pre-loaded for out-of-band ticks.

adversarialSearch

4-8 disprove-the-thesis queries per tick; counter-evidence shrinks edges.

auditTrail

Every intent / kill / fill logged with thesis claim and news citation for compliance review.

Live legislation tracker

All bills with markets →

Department of Homeland Security ApprKXICEREFORM-HSI

Received in the Senate and Read twice and referred to the Committee on Appropriations.

SAVE ActKXSAVEACT-27-JAN04

Received in the Senate.

Drain the Swamp ActKXDRAINTHESWAMP-27-JAN04

Referred to the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform.

Hands Off Medicaid and SNAP Act of 2KXSNAPRESTRICT-27-JAN04

Referred to the Committee on Rules, and in addition to the Committee on the Budget, for a period to be subsequently determined by the Speaker, in each case for consideration of such provisions as fall within the jurisdiction of the committee concerned.

To designate the Washington Dulles IKXBILLS-AIRP

Referred to the Subcommittee on Aviation.

Live policy markets

Will John Fetterman vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

—¢kalshi

Will Lisa Murkowski vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

—¢kalshi

Will Rand Paul vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

—¢kalshi

AI regulation by 2027?

—¢kalshi

Will it be reported that at least one million Americans have received checks of at least $1000 directly attributable to tariff revenue?

—¢kalshi

Will it be reported that at least one million Americans have received checks of at least $1000 directly attributable to tariff revenue?

—¢kalshi

Will it be reported that at least one million Americans have received checks of at least $1000 directly attributable to tariff revenue?

—¢kalshi

Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?: Thom Tillis

—¢polymarket

Why a thesis loop beats a news terminal

ApproachWhat it gives youWhere it breaks

Bloomberg + Politico tabs

Best policy newswire money buys

No probability decomposition, no contract math, no kill chain, no agent path

Twitter + manual scan

Free; sometimes ahead of the wire

No structure, no orderbook math, blink-and-miss-it; nights and weekends impossible

Single-venue Kalshi UI

Tightest spreads on Kalshi policy contracts

No Polymarket coverage, no cross-venue arb, no agent automation

SimpleFunctions Policy

Thesis + edges + intents across both venues + audit

Surfaces only when post-slippage edge clears floor and depth covers size

Who runs policy watch

Six recurring shapes — same loop, different lenses. The pattern that repeats: a directional view with sharp triggers and a calendar.

Policy desks at funds

Decompose the cycle book into testable claims and let the heartbeat ping when one breaks.

Election cycle traders

Senate / House / presidential contracts with congressional-calendar kill conditions.

Tariff specialists

China / EU / Canada / Mexico / India contracts with retaliation-pattern news triggers.

Fed watchers

FOMC release out-of-band ticks + dot-plot kill triggers + total-cuts ladder edges.

Geopolitical shops

Iran / Taiwan / Ukraine / NATO — adversarial news scan + matched recession legs.

Compliance / risk teams

Audit trail per intent: edge-at-entry, kill chain, slippage realized, regime label at fill.

Policy endpoints

Same context shape across CLI, REST/API, and MCP adapter. Wire it into a script, an agent, or a manual workflow.

API reference

Live policy context

GET /api/public/context?topics=policyopen

Live policy markets

GET /api/public/markets?keyword=fed+shutdown+tariff+electionopen

Policy edges feed

GET /api/public/edges?theme=policy&minEdge=8open

Legislation + markets

GET /api/public/legislation?hasMarket=trueopen

MCP adapter — sf.context

mcp call simplefunctions.context { topics: ["policy"] }open

Topics + a sample alert

Eight topic groups, ~150 active contracts. Each alert ships with the causal-claim update that drove the price move.

Topics covered

Government ShutdownWill it happen? How long? Which agencies?

Fed Rate DecisionsCut/hold/hike per FOMC. Total cuts in 2026.

TariffsChina, EU, Canada, Mexico, India — separate rates.

ElectionsPresidential, Senate, House, gubernatorial.

Executive ActionsCabinet, EOs, pardons, appointments.

GeopoliticsIran, Taiwan, Ukraine, NATO, sanctions.

RegulationSEC, FTC, FDA, crypto regulation, AI policy.

Central BanksBoJ, ECB, BoE, PBoC decisions.

Alert · Govt Shutdown

▼ Government Shutdown
  Confidence: 72% → 58% (-14)

Why: Senate passed CR 54-46.
House vote expected Thursday.

Markets:
  KXGOVSHUT-APR    58¢ (was 72¢)  -14¢
  PM Shutdown Apr  55¢ (was 70¢)  -15¢

Causal update:
  Senate passage:    30% → 95%  confirmed
  House passage:     85% → 60%  weakened
  Pres. signature:   90% → 90%  unchanged
  Court action:      15% → 22%  watching

Kill chain:
  ✓ no falsification yet on n2
  pulling 1 of 4 open intents (House risk)

FAQ

Why use prediction markets to track policy?

Kalshi and Polymarket reprice government-shutdown odds, FOMC decisions, tariff escalation, election outcomes, and geopolitical events in real time — often before traditional newswires. They settle in cash, are available 24/7, and the contract specs make the policy claim explicit. Instead of trading SPX as a proxy for "rate path + recession + election," you trade a specific event probability with a known payoff.

What policy topics does the runtime cover?

Government shutdowns (per CR / appropriations), Fed rate decisions (per FOMC + total-cuts ladders), tariffs (China, EU, Canada, Mexico, India — each separately), elections (presidential, Senate, House, gubernatorial), executive actions (cabinet changes, EOs, pardons), geopolitics (Iran, Taiwan, Ukraine, NATO, sanctions), regulatory (SEC, FTC, FDA, crypto, AI policy), central banks (BoJ, ECB, BoE, PBoC). ~210 active policy contracts.

How does the alert tell you more than a price chart?

Each alert ships with: which sub-claim of your causal tree confirmed or falsified (e.g., "Senate passage: 30% → 95% confirmed"), which contracts moved by how much on both venues, the news evidence with citations, and the kill-condition status. It is the policy equivalent of a research memo + execution sheet.

How fast does the policy heartbeat tick?

Default 15-min curated briefing. Out-of-band ticks within 30 seconds on FOMC release, CPI/NFP prints, Senate / House floor vote results, executive orders being signed, geopolitical breaks. News ingestion is continuous (Reuters, Bloomberg, Politico, central-bank wires).

Can I write a thesis on a specific policy outcome?

Yes. POST your thesis as plain English ("Government shutdown Apr-May; CR fails in House; Pres veto sustained"); the runtime decomposes into a causal tree with sub-claim probabilities mapped to specific contracts (KXGOVSHUT-APR, PM Shutdown Apr, etc.). Edges, kills, and intent-arming work the same as macro / crypto theses.

How does it handle adverse events mid-thesis?

Each thesis has explicit kill conditions tied to news patterns and market levels. Senate passes the CR, the President signs an EO, OPEC announces a cut, China retaliates with tariffs of its own — each is a kill trigger. Adversarial search runs every tick; a hit cancels open intents and flags positions for review.

Cross-venue arbitrage on policy events?

Common. Kalshi shutdown odds vs Polymarket shutdown odds diverge regularly because the venues attract different flow (US-regulated retail vs USDC on-chain). The runtime tracks matched pairs, scores both books for depth, and surfaces matched-pair intents when post-slippage spread clears your floor.

Is policy monitoring legal? Election betting?

Kalshi is CFTC-regulated; election contracts are listed under approved categories. Polymarket is USDC-settled and operates outside the US (US persons are geo-blocked). The runtime is BYOK: you sign orders with your venue keys, the venues handle KYC and compliance. SimpleFunctions is not a broker, exchange, or investment adviser.

Can an LLM agent run a policy book?

Yes. The CLI is the first-class surface for local agents, the HTTP APIs are the network surface, and MCP is available as an adapter for compatible hosts. Typical loop: hourly thesis review, 15-min edge scan, immediate kill triggers on news pattern hits. Common usage: a research agent drafts theses, a scanner agent surfaces edges, an executor agent arms intents only on signed-off candidates.

Cost?

Public context + edges + markets endpoints free, no auth, CC-BY-4.0. Authenticated thesis + intent endpoints metered. WebSocket /v1/ws free for read. Heartbeat ticks bundled into metered quota.

Related surfaces

Legislation tracker

Every active bill mapped to its prediction-market contract.

Macro loop

Same loop, macro lens — oil, Fed, CPI, recession, geopolitics.

Heartbeat engine

24/7 monitoring + thesis re-evaluation; out-of-band on FOMC / Senate / House / SCOTUS.

Edge discovery

How thesis-vs-market edges are surfaced and ranked.

Portfolio Autopilot

LLM agent that runs the policy loop on a schedule.

For funds

Cross-venue tools, audit trail, BYOK execution for fund desks.

Prediction market API

CLI, REST/Data API, real-time WebSocket streams, MCP adapter.