What is a maker strategy in prediction markets?

Rest limit orders ahead of event-driven flow. Collect spread instead of paying it. The runtime knows your thesis-implied value, market state, and upcoming catalysts — it places orders at the optimal price between all three.

How do prediction market limit orders work?

Place an order at your price and wait for the market to come to you. The heartbeat engine manages your orders: requotes when thesis confidence changes, cancels on kill conditions, and tracks fills via Telegram.

Is maker or taker better for prediction markets?

Depends on edge size and time horizon. Taker for immediate large edges with good liquidity. Maker for patient accumulation with better entry prices. Most theses benefit from running both strategies simultaneously.

Maker strategy

Thesis-informed limit orders

Don't pay spread. Collect it. The runtime places orders ahead of event-driven liquidity — your thesis tells it where and when the flow is coming.

Same thesis, different execution

$ sf thesis show

Iran War Oil Thesis — 89% confidence

  Hormuz closure     ████████░░ 85%  → WTI contracts
  Oil above $100     █████████░ 91%  → CPI contracts
  Fed constrained    ███████░░░ 72%  → rate contracts
  Recession Q3       ██████░░░░ 63%  → recession contracts

Active taker positions: 3
Active maker orders: 0     ← you are here

Same thesis, taker already used it. Maker uses the same causal tree with a different execution style.

Runtime calculates quotes

$ sf make --dry-run

Quote report:

  WTI T150 YES
  Market bid: 36¢ | ask: 40¢ | mid: 38¢
  Thesis-implied: 74¢

  Suggested limit: 42¢
    → 4¢ above market ask (aggressive: catalyst imminent)
    → 32¢ below thesis-implied (keeps most of the edge)
    → Fill probability: 68% within 48h

  Upcoming catalysts:
    18h  WTI weekly settle
    3d   OPEC emergency meeting
    5d   Trump Hormuz deadline expires

  Recession YES
  Market bid: 33¢ | ask: 37¢ | mid: 35¢
  Thesis-implied: 55¢

  Suggested limit: 39¢
    → 2¢ above ask (moderate: no near-term catalyst)
    → 16¢ below thesis-implied
    → Fill probability: 45% within 72h

The runtime knows thesis-implied value, market state, and upcoming catalysts. It finds the optimal limit price between all three.

Orders live, runtime manages

$ sf make

✓ Placed 4 maker orders

  WTI T150  200 YES @ 42¢  live     catalyst: 18h
  Recession 500 YES @ 39¢  live     catalyst: 5d
  Gas $4.50 300 YES @ 17¢  live     catalyst: 3d
  CPI May   100 YES @ 26¢  live     catalyst: 5d

Heartbeat will manage: requote on thesis change,
cancel on kill condition, fill tracking via Telegram.

Heartbeat #848 — 11:29 UTC

  🟢 FILL: WTI T150 — 80/200 filled @ 42¢
     (WTI weekly settle triggered flow)

  Remaining: 120 @ 42¢ still live

Heartbeat #851 — 12:14 UTC

  🟡 REQUOTE: Recession — 39¢ → 37¢
     (thesis-implied dropped 55→51 after Trump pause)

  ✓ Old order cancelled, new order placed

Heartbeat #860 — 14:29 UTC

  🔴 KILL: Gas $4.50 orders cancelled
     (kill condition: Trump lifts Iran sanctions)

After placing, you walk away. The heartbeat tracks fills, requotes on thesis changes, and cancels on kill conditions.

Results

$ sf make-pnl

Maker performance — last 7 days

  Orders placed:    12
  Orders filled:     7  (58% fill rate)
  Orders killed:     2
  Orders expired:    3

  Avg entry vs taker entry:
    Maker avg: 41¢ | Taker would have paid: 46¢
    Saved: 5¢ per contract (10.8% improvement)

  Filled positions P&L:
    WTI T150   80 @ 42¢  now 51¢  +$7.20   ▲
    Recession  500 @ 37¢  now 39¢  +$10.00  ▲
    Total maker P&L: +$17.20

  vs equivalent taker P&L: +$5.60
  Maker advantage: +$11.60 (3.1x)

Same thesis, better entries, higher profit. Trade-off is fill uncertainty and time.

Maker works when you have time and thesis confidence. For immediate edge capture —

Most theses benefit from running both: taker for high-conviction immediate opportunities, maker for patient accumulation.

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