Taker strategy

Thesis-driven directional trading

See edge. Take it. The runtime monitors your thesis against live markets and tells you when to move.

1

Write a thesis

$ sf thesis create

Describe your market view:
> Iran war sustains oil above $100, US enters recession by Q3 2026

✓ Causal tree built — 6 nodes, 4 markets mapped

  Hormuz closure duration        → WTI contracts
  Oil sustained above $100       → CPI / inflation
  Fed constrained by stagflation → rate contracts
  GDP contraction Q3             → recession contracts

Natural language in, causal tree out. The runtime turns your intuition into trackable structure.

2

Runtime monitors

Heartbeat #847 — 11:14 UTC

News:
   WSJ: Hormuz effectively closed to tanker traffic
   Trump announces 5-day strike pause
   IEA: "major threat worse than 1970s oil shock"

Prices:
  WTI T135  58¢ → 62¢  
  Recession  32¢ → 35¢  

Kill conditions: all clear

Adversarial query: "iran ceasefire deal progress"
  → No credible path to resolution found

Every 15 minutes: news scan, price refresh, kill condition check, adversarial search. You don't watch the screen.

3

Edge surfaces

Edge report

  WTI T150 YES
  Market: 38¢ | Thesis-implied: 74¢ | Edge: +36¢
  Spread: 1¢ | Depth: $2,400 | Liquidity: high ★
  Type: consensus gap

  Gas $4.50 YES
  Market: 14¢ | Thesis-implied: 55¢ | Edge: +41¢
  Spread: 2¢ | Depth: $800 | Liquidity: medium
  Type: attention gap

  Track record: 67% of edges moved in thesis direction

The runtime finds where market pricing disagrees with your model. Each edge has size, type, and liquidity score.

4

Execute

$ sf buy KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T150 --yes --contracts 200

✓ Filled 200 YES @ 38¢
  Cost: $76.00
  Edge at entry: +36¢
  Thesis implied value: $148.00

Portfolio updated. Telegram notified.

One command. Or let your agent execute — the runtime exposes the same capabilities via MCP and REST.

Taker works when edge is large and liquidity is there now. For thinner markets or patient entries —