The Era of Information Arbitrage

Prediction markets are not just casinos. They are the most efficient mechanism humanity has invented for aggregating dispersed information. But they are currently broken.

The Problem: Asymmetric Attention

Markets like Kalshi and Polymarket move on information. But information is unevenly distributed. While institutions have armies of analysts and scrapers, the individual trader is left doomscrolling X (Twitter) and refreshing Google Trends manually.

This creates an attention asymmetry. The alpha exists—in search volume spikes, in local news reports, in legislative calendar updates—but it is buried under noise.

The Solution: Autonomous Intelligence

We believe the future of trading is not just “better charts”. It is agentic research. We are building SimpleFunctions to be the “Bloomberg Terminal” for this new asset class. Not just a passive data feed, but an active research partner.

Our agents don’t sleep. They monitor the entire information surface of the internet—from SEC filings to Reddit threads—and synthesize it into structured, probabilistic scenarios.

From Narrative to Portfolio

Ultimately, we believe that every worldview can be expressed as a portfolio. If you believe we are entering a “1970s style stagflation” era, there is a precise basket of prediction market contracts that expresses that view.

Our long-term mission is to build the Worldview Compiler: a system that translates your narrative about the future into a mathematically optimal set of bets.