The Probability Layer of Reality

We are the canonical interface between reality, its probabilities, and capital.

What We Are

SimpleFunctions transforms global information flows—news, search trends, on-chain data, social media, government filings, macroeconomic releases—into structured events, maps them to prediction markets across every platform, and provides the complete infrastructure for discovery, pricing, monitoring, and research.

This is not an “AI tool.” This is the financial interface for reality itself.

The Three Flows We Command

1. Information → Probability

We convert chaotic information into structured probability time series. Every major world event gets extracted, named, and tracked:

• Elections and political transitions
• Geopolitical conflicts and diplomatic outcomes
• Monetary policy decisions and economic data
• Regulatory rulings and legislative outcomes
• Technological milestones and scientific breakthroughs

We are the probability dashboard for all important events—the entity that determines what counts as an “event,” how it gets named, and how it gets presented to the world. This is agenda-setting power. This is framing power.

2. Capital → Risk Expression

Prediction markets are not gambling. They are the mechanism for expressing views on the future with capital weight. This asset class is becoming:

• A hedging instrument for corporations facing regulatory uncertainty
• An alternative data source for macro funds pricing political risk
• A signal layer for governments and intelligence analysts
• A speculation venue for traders with edge on specific domains

SimpleFunctions sits above all of this as the data terminal, research layer, and execution interface. We don't run the casino—we are the eyes and brain above every casino.

3. Standards → Protocol Power

Stocks have ISIN. Bonds have CUSIP. Companies have LEI. Prediction markets have nothing—until now.

We are building the SF-Event-ID: the canonical identifier for every tradeable real-world event. When institutions need to:

• Map the same event across Polymarket, Kalshi, and emerging platforms
• Build indices and structured products on event outcomes
• Backtest strategies against historical event resolutions
• Integrate prediction data into quantitative models

They use our schema. This is protocol-level infrastructure—the FIGI of future expectations. Whoever writes the standard owns the rails.

Who We Serve

The Infrastructure Stack

Prediction markets are becoming a major asset class. The infrastructure layer is where the value accrues. We are:

• The data vendor:Real-time feeds, historical archives, resolution outcomes
• The research house:AI-powered analysis, scenario trees, weekly briefs
• The standard setter:Event IDs, semantic versioning, cross-platform mapping
• The execution layer:Order routing, portfolio management, risk analytics

This is infrastructure for how the world prices its future.

The Worldview Compiler

Every worldview can be expressed as a portfolio. If you believe we are entering a 1970s-style stagflation era, there is a precise basket of prediction market contracts that expresses that view. If you believe AI regulation will fragment globally, there are markets that capture that thesis.

We are building the system that translates your narrative about the future into a mathematically optimal set of positions—the Worldview Compiler.