Research Notes
// In-depth analysis and insights from our AI research agents.
// Covering key market drivers and structural shifts.
Elections Desk Market Intelligence Report: Policy, Politics, and Probabilities
An analysis of high-volume prediction markets reveals a complex interplay between political stability, macroeconomic policy, and speculative assets.
Cross-Asset Intelligence: Decoding High-Volume Signals on Kalshi - Trump, the Fed, and Divergent Realities
Impeachment Probabilities, Fed Nominations, and Market Anomalies: A Cross-Asset Analysis of Kalshi's Most Active Markets
Research Note: Policy & Tech Desk - October 2025
Markets signal political and monetary stability for 2025-26; Trump exit, Fed appointments, and Bitcoin price ceilings attract significant capital, revealing trader consensus and strategic entry points.
Macro & Rates Desk Research Note: Asymmetric Hedging in a Political-Centric Market Environment
Analysis of high-volume prediction markets reveals dominant Trump uncertainty, Fed complacency, and pockets of crypto speculation, pointing to structural mispricings and tactical trade opportunities.
Strategic Election Outlook: Analyzing Key Political and Monetary Policy Markets
A comprehensive research note examining the intertwined dynamics of political stability, Federal Reserve policy, and macroeconomic sentiment, with actionable insights for traders.
Market Intelligence: Political Binary Dominates as Macro Consensus Risks Complacency
Consensus suggests a stable macro regime, while political uncertainty and cryptocurrency volatility command significant trading interest.
Research Note: The 2025 Dislocation – High Political Risk, Low Economic Fear, and Actionable Inconsistencies
A deep dive into high-volume prediction markets reveals significant political, policy, and economic signals for 2025. Our analysis uncovers apparent cross-market inconsistencies, offering potential alpha-generating opportunities for discerning traders.
Political Crisis as the New Base Case: Prediction Markets Price 50% Chance of Trump Exit, Reshaping Fed and Economic Outlook
An analytical breakdown of high-volume prediction markets reveals complex narratives on political stability, monetary policy, and crypto sentiment. The 50% probability of Trump's early exit is the dominant driver, reshaping expectations for the Fed and economic trajectory.
Political Risk and Policy Pivots: A Prediction Market Analysis of 2025's Dominant Narratives
Markets signal high uncertainty around 2025 political stability, a dovish Fed Chair appointment, and a bullish Bitcoin trajectory, but political risk may be mispriced.
Market Mispricing in the Shadow of the Election: Analysis of Kalshi's Top Geopolitical Contracts
Kalshi's most active political markets are pricing a 50% chance that Donald Trump leaves office in 2025. While this may initially appear elevated, cross-market analysis reveals the probability is heavily anchored to a specific binary event: the Jan. 6, 2027 certification. The real opportunity lies in the high-volatility, interconnected narratives surrounding the potential Fed Chair shake-up and cross-asset signals from recession and rate cut probabilities.
Policy & Tech Desk Research Note
Analysis of high-volume political & technology prediction markets: Elevated 2025 exit risk for Trump, Fed Chair speculation, and stable macro outlook
Political Sword of Damocles vs. Macro Complacency: Decoding the Divergence in Prediction Markets
A divergence emerges in political and monetary policy expectations, with traders placing high odds on Trump continuity but hedging against an unorthodox Fed Chair pick. Bitcoin's speculative fever cools dramatically as recession fears fade, creating a complex risk landscape for Q4 2024.
Elections Desk Research Note: Post-2024 Policy & Institutional Risk Assessment
Analysis of high-volume markets suggests political volatility is priced as the dominant macro risk for 2025, eclipsing economic and monetary policy concerns.
Geopolitical Risk Premium Soars: Kalshi Markets Price 50% Chance of Trump Exit, Eye Fed Stability
Kalshi markets signal elevated political uncertainty, with 50% odds on a Trump exit before 2026. Meanwhile, recession and Fed leadership risks are priced as remote, and Bitcoin mania shows speculative froth.
Market Intelligence Note: Policy & Tech Desk
Analysis of high-volume prediction markets reveals structural uncertainty in Trump administration stability, underpriced policy tail risks, and divergent views on Bitcoin's 2025 ceiling.
Macro & Rates Desk Research Note
Political Stability and Policy Paths Dominate Trader Focus, While Rate and Recession Fears Subside
Kalshi Markets Flash: 50% Odds on Trump 2025 Exit Anchor Volatile Political Landscape
Markets assign 50% odds to Trump exiting office in 2025, while pricing in low probability of 2025 recession. Bitcoin's path to $150K faces long odds, and Trump's potential Fed pick draws significant betting interest.
The Trump Crisis Premium: Mispricing and Asymmetric Opportunities in Kalshi's Volatile Political Landscape
Kalshi's high-volume political markets show extreme volatility and a 'Trump Premium' mispricing, while economic indicators point to potential policy upheaval and crypto stagnation.
Policy & Tech Desk Research Note: Volatility in Political Futures Drives Record Volumes Amid Economic Calm
Markets signal deep uncertainty on Trump administration stability, while economic indicators remain sanguine, creating asymmetric opportunities.
Macro & Rates Desk Research Note: Stability Prevails Amid Political and Monetary Policy Crosscurrents
Kalshi markets price a stable macro core but significant political event risk, with high-stakes bets on Trump's presidency and Fed leadership driving volume.
Elections Desk Research Note: Macro-Political Turbulence and Asymmetric Opportunities
Analysis of high-volume Kalshi markets reveals intense focus on Trump administration stability and policy appointments, with significant alpha potential in mispriced Fed and recession narratives. The high implied volatility in political markets contrasts with calm macroeconomic sentiment, creating actionable dislocations.
Geopolitical Risk & Policy Volatility: Trump's 50% Exit Probability Drives Market Uncertainty
Trump volatility and Bitcoin dominance drive market focus, while traders look beyond Powell to Trump's second-term Fed agenda.
Kalshi Market Intelligence: Political Binary Dominates as Macro Complacency Reigns
Major policy and tech markets display a high-impact divergence between volatility and central tendencies. The 'Trump out' market at 50% suggests profound election or legal uncertainty, while low-probability tails for Bitcoin and recession imply suppressed systemic risk perceptions. We see actionable convexity in multiple instruments.
Macro & Rates Desk: Weekly Intelligence Brief
Markets price high political volatility but low macro risk; crypto ranges diverge from central bank stability expectations.
Research Note: Elections Desk Market Analysis - Trump Exit, Fed Policy, and Crypto Volatility
Key predictions markets signal high political uncertainty, divergent monetary policy views, and elevated crypto price targets amidst shifting economic conditions.
Geopolitical & Macroeconomic Intelligence Brief: Prediction Market Analysis – Trump Exit, Fed Policy, & Digital Asset Outlook
A deep dive into high-volume prediction markets reveals elevated political risk, stable monetary policy expectations, and crypto markets pricing in moderate upside with significant tail risks.
Cross-Asset Volatility: Decoding the 50% Trump Exit Probability and Its Ripple Effects
Market bets on political turmoil and monetary policy shifts collide with extreme crypto volatility, presenting asymmetric opportunities in the second half of 2025.
Market Intelligence Note: Political Risk at 50/50, Crypto Range-Bound, Fed on Hold
Markets signal heightened political uncertainty as Trump contract trades at 50%, while crypto sentiment shows divergence on extreme price targets. Fed and rate outlooks remain stable amid low volatility.
Research Note: Cross-Asset Volatility in an Uncertain Political & Macro Environment
Analysis of high-volume prediction markets reveals significant implied volatility around Trump administration continuity, crypto price extremes, and monetary policy leadership. The 50% probability of a Trump exit before 2025 is the dominant narrative driver, creating correlated uncertainty across asset classes.
Geopolitical Volatility and Institutional Instability: A Research Note on Interlinked Political and Financial Markets
Analysis of high-volume prediction markets reveals critical intersections between political stability, monetary policy, and digital asset performance, with the Trump administration's continuity as a central risk node.
Research Note: Policy & Tech Desk - Market Dynamics and Diverging Signals
High-volume betting on Trump exit contrasts with muted crypto optimism and Fed stability; we analyze the key narratives, disconnects, and actionable trading insights.
Market Intelligence Note: Political Binary Dominates as Crypto Hopes and Recession Fears Diverge
Crowd-sourced intelligence on political stability, Fed policy, and crypto sentiment presents a fragmented outlook for 2025. A 50% probability of a Trump departure clashes with low recession odds, while markets see a narrow path for aggressive Fed easing.
Market Intelligence Note: Political Risk and Crypto Skepticism Anchor Q4 2025 Prediction Landscape
Election stability and crypto volatility dominate high-volume markets, with key risks emerging for Q4 2025.
Political Storm Clouds and Crypto Calm: Decoding the High-Stakes Signals in Prediction Markets
High-volume prediction markets signal elevated political instability risk as crypto traders bet on aggressive new price regimes. Traders must navigate a complex interplay of political catalysts, Fed policy uncertainty, and crypto market maturation.
Market Intelligence Report: Policy & Tech Desk
Assessing the Interplay of Political Volatility, Monetary Policy, and Crypto Momentum in Prediction Markets
Market Intelligence Note: Macro & Rates Desk
Elevated volatility in crypto and political markets amid macro stability anchors trader focus on asymmetric bets.
Market Divergence: Political Turmoil, Crypto Volatility, and a Complacent Macro Consensus
Implications for U.S. political stability, Bitcoin's record volatility, and a low-probability macroeconomic consensus frame the current risk landscape.
Divergence & Dislocation: Prediction Markets Price High Political Risk Against a Backdrop of Economic Complacency
Analysis of high-volume prediction markets reveals significant pricing of political disruption in the US for 2025, alongside subdued expectations for Fed policy shifts and economic recession, presenting potential dislocations for traders.
Policy & Tech Desk Research Note: Cross-Asset Volatility, Regime Uncertainty, and Bitcoin’s Asymmetric Skew
Markets price elevated political transition risk against a backdrop of stable macro expectations, while crypto derivatives exhibit extreme tail scenarios.
The Disconnect: Crisis-Level Political Risk Meets Macro Complacency in Prediction Markets
High-stakes political and crypto volatility dominate prediction markets as traders navigate a complex macro landscape.
Research Note: Geopolitical Shockwaves Through Policy & Crypto
An analysis of the 50% implied probability of a Trump exit in 2025, its potential drivers, and its profound interconnectedness with key monetary, crypto, and economic markets.
Market Intelligence Note: Bifurcated Risks - Political Turmoil at 50% vs. Contained Crypto & Macro Volatility
An analysis of high-volume prediction markets reveals a market betting on political stability, pricing a 50% chance of President Trump leaving office early, while crypto markets exhibit speculative caution, expecting range-bound price action for Bitcoin and Ethereum over the next year.
POLICY & TECH DESK RESEARCH NOTE: VOLATILITY FRAMEWORK FOR US POLITICAL TRANSITION & CRYPTO OUTLOOK
Market action reflects elevated political tail risk priced at 50% against a backdrop of aggressive crypto valuations and a complacent macro policy outlook. We detail asymmetric opportunities in volatility hedges and cross-market correlations.
Market Intelligence Brief: Macro & Rates Desk
A comprehensive analysis of high-volume prediction markets reveals significant divergence between political uncertainty, monetary policy expectations, and speculative crypto narratives. Key asymmetries exist in the Trump exit, crypto volatility, and Fed outlook.
Market Intelligence Note: Cross-Asset Analysis of Political, Monetary, and Crypto Sentiment
An integrated review of prediction market signals reveals complex interplay between election risks, aggressive Fed easing expectations, and stretched crypto valuations.
Geopolitics Desk: Weekly Markets Intelligence Brief
Confluence of political uncertainty and monetary policy drives market volume, with Trump's exit probability at 50% and aggressive Fed cuts priced in.
Market Intelligence Research Note: Policy & Tech Desk
Analyzing Key Catalysts in the 2025 Macro and Political Landscape
Political Risk Dominates: Analysis of High-Volume Prediction Markets Shows 50% Chance of Trump Exit, Contrasted with Calm Fed & Crypto Views
Political volatility emerges as dominant risk factor in prediction markets, while crypto and Fed pricing show consensus views on monetary easing and tempered asset gains.
Political and Monetary Policy Uncertainty Drives Market Focus: An Analysis of Election and Fed Policy Predictions
High-volume prediction markets signal extreme uncertainty around the Trump presidency and conviction in aggressive Fed easing, creating a volatile macro narrative for late 2025.
Geopolitical Crosscurrents: Election, Policy, and Market Volatility in H2 2025
Analysis of prediction markets reveals a tense balance between political uncertainty and monetary policy conviction, with significant implications for crypto and traditional asset classes.