Market Timeline
// Chronological view of news events affecting prediction markets.
// Track how real-world events impact market probabilities.
December 18, 2025
OpenAI releases GPT-5.2 AI model
OpenAI has launched its GPT-5.2 model, claiming it outperforms or matches human professionals on many tasks and beats Google's Gemini 3 Pro on key benchmarks like SWE-Bench Pro. The release follows a reported 'code red' at OpenAI after Google's Gemini 3 gained attention.
Kevin Warsh surges in Fed chair prediction markets
Former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh's probability of being nominated as the next Federal Reserve Chair has surged on prediction market Kalshi, moving ahead of Kevin Hassett after reports of pushback against Hassett from Trump advisors. Odds shifted from ~10% to ~46% for Warsh, while Hassett's fell from ~77% to ~39% (per CNBC).
Enhanced ACA subsidies not extended, House passes alternative bill
The House passed a Republican healthcare bill that does not extend enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies, which are set to expire on January 1, 2026. Speaker Mike Johnson said there would be no vote on a bipartisan extension amendment, despite pressure from moderate Republicans and Democrats.
Market Impact
Bitcoin ETF flows show volatility, net positive for week
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF flows were volatile but ended the week with net positive inflows of approximately +$286.6 million across five sessions (Dec 8-12). Daily flows ranged from -$60.4M to +$223.5M.
Chile elects right-wing president José Antonio Kast
Conservative candidate José Antonio Kast won Chile's presidential runoff election, suggesting a hard-right, pro-Trump surge in Latin America. This marks Chile's most right-wing president since the Pinochet dictatorship.
OCC conditionally approves national trust bank charters for Circle, Ripple, BitGo, Paxos, Fidelity Digital Assets
The OCC conditionally approved national trust bank charters for Circle and Ripple, and conditionally approved conversion applications from BitGo, Paxos, and Fidelity Digital Assets. These charters would allow custody and payments functions but not deposits or loans.
Trump administration sanctions Venezuelan President Maduro's nephews
The U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on three nephews of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro as part of an escalating pressure campaign against his government.