SIMPLEFUNCTIONS
07. Research & Insights

Blog & Insights

// Expert analysis and insights on prediction markets.
// AI-powered research for informed decision making.

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Latest Articles

cryptoJAN 9, 202642 MIN READ

How Bitcoin & Ethereum Crypto 2026 Price Prediction Markets Are Pricing the Next Leg of the Cycle

Bitcoin is trading near prior-cycle ATHs, Ethereum is still levered to DeFi and L2 growth, and prediction markets are already putting odds on specific 2026 price levels. This deep-dive connects BTC/ETH halving base rates, institutional flows, regulation, and on-chain data to what crypto 2026 price prediction markets are actually signaling—and where the mispricings may be.

#Bitcoin#Ethereum#crypto price prediction
techJAN 9, 2026129 MIN READ

AI Regulation 2026: Global Policy Scenarios and How to Trade Them on Prediction Markets

EU, US, and China are racing to lock in AI rules by 2026—creating asymmetric risks and opportunities. This outline maps the key governance regimes, safety standards, and open‑source debates, then translates them into concrete AI regulation 2026 global policy prediction markets and trading setups.

#AI regulation 2026#AI policy#prediction markets
politicsJAN 9, 202671 MIN READ

Trump Tariffs 2026: Trade War Risk with China & Mexico and What Prediction Markets Are Pricing In

Trump’s 2025–26 tariff agenda revives trade‑war dynamics with China and raises new questions about Mexico, autos, inflation, and supply chains. This playbook shows how to read the policy path, quantify macro and sector impacts, and use prediction markets to trade the next phase of tariff risk.

#Trump tariffs#China trade war#Mexico tariffs
macroJAN 9, 202670 MIN READ

Federal Reserve Interest Rates 2026: What Inflation Prediction Markets Are Really Pricing In

Prediction markets are already trading the Fed’s 2026 path on rates, inflation, and unemployment. This deep dive connects those odds to the Fed’s SEP, historical cutting cycles, QT endgame, and global central bank moves—so macro investors can trade the 2026 regime, not the headlines.

#Federal Reserve#Interest Rates#Inflation
politicsJAN 9, 202699 MIN READ

US Midterm Elections 2026 Prediction Markets: Trading the Battle for Congress

Prediction markets are already pricing the 2026 fight for Congress as a split decision—lean Republican in the Senate, edge to Democrats in the House. This deep‑dive shows how to trade those odds using historical base rates, polling quality, Trump’s impact, economic scenarios, and the specific races that will decide control.

#US midterm elections 2026#prediction markets#Congress
politicsJAN 9, 202685 MIN READ

Trump Foreign Policy 2026: Latin America, Venezuela, and What Prediction Markets Are Pricing In

Trump’s second-term moves in Venezuela and across Latin America are reshaping sanctions, migration, trade, and the use of force. Here’s how the policy logic fits together—and where prediction markets see the highest upside and downside risks.

#Venezuela#Latin America#Donald Trump
macroJAN 9, 202669 MIN READ

Petrodollar System in 2026: BRICS Oil Trading, Yuan, and What Prediction Markets Are Pricing In

Dollar oil pricing is under its biggest challenge since the 1970s—but most experts still see erosion, not collapse. This deep-dive links the history of the petrodollar, BRICS de-dollarization moves, and yuan-based oil trade to concrete prediction markets on the future of dollar dominance.

#petrodollar#BRICS#oil markets
macroJAN 9, 202672 MIN READ

Energy Security 2026: Oil, Gas Geopolitics and What Prediction Markets Are Pricing In

How Europe’s break from Russian energy, the coming LNG wave, Middle East risks, US shale, China’s strategy, and the renewables transition are shaping 2026 oil and gas—and where prediction markets see mispriced geopolitical risk.

#energy security#oil markets#natural gas
geopoliticsJAN 9, 202652 MIN READ

Cuba Regime 2026: Post-Castro Era Prediction Markets and the Risk of Sudden Change

Diaz-Canel’s Cuba is in its worst peacetime crisis since 1959—yet markets still mostly price in regime continuity through 2026. This deep-dive explains the macro, political, migration, and geopolitical drivers prediction traders must track to spot mispriced Cuban tail risk.

#Cuba#prediction markets#geopolitics
geopoliticsJAN 9, 2026112 MIN READ

Latin America’s Leftist Governments to 2026: Pink Tide Scenarios and Prediction Market Edges

How the second pink tide could crest or collapse by 2026 — with deep dives on Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Chile, and Argentina, plus US election scenarios and concrete trade ideas for prediction market traders.

#Latin America politics#pink tide#prediction markets
geopoliticsJAN 9, 2026136 MIN READ

US Oil Sanctions on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia in 2026: How Prediction Markets Are Pricing the Next Shock

Prediction markets are quietly handicapping the odds of a new sanctions squeeze on Venezuelan, Iranian, and Russian oil in 2026. This deep-dive maps the legal regimes, enforcement patterns, shadow fleets, and global oil balances behind those prices—and shows where traders may be mispricing the risk.

#US oil sanctions#Venezuela#Iran
macroJAN 9, 202658 MIN READ

Global Oil Prices 2026: OPEC, Venezuela, Iran & Prediction Markets in Focus

What 2026 prediction markets are really pricing for Brent, and how OPEC+ policy, Venezuela’s comeback, Iran’s sanctions dance, U.S. shale discipline, and China’s slowing demand will decide where oil trades.

#global oil prices#OPEC+#Saudi Arabia
macroJAN 9, 202658 MIN READ

Venezuela Oil Production, PDVSA 2026 Sanctions & Prediction Markets: What the Odds Are Really Pricing In

Venezuela’s oil output, U.S. sanctions on PDVSA, and Chevron’s shifting license regime are at the center of several high-stakes prediction markets. This deep dive links the legal timeline, field-level constraints, and geopolitical deals with China and Russia to the 2026 outlook — and shows where market odds may be wrong.

#Venezuela#PDVSA#oil markets
geopoliticsJAN 9, 202642 MIN READ

Venezuela’s Humanitarian Crisis by 2026: Migration, Refugees, and the Signals from Prediction Markets

How an 8‑million‑plus exodus is reshaping Latin America, US immigration politics, and remittance‑driven stabilization—and what prediction markets are pricing in (and missing) about Venezuela’s humanitarian crisis in 2026.

#Venezuela#migration#refugees
geopoliticsJAN 9, 202672 MIN READ

Venezuela Opposition, Maria Corina Machado, and 2026 Prediction Markets: What Traders Are Really Pricing In

How prediction markets are pricing the Venezuela opposition’s chances, María Corina Machado’s strategy, and regime‑change risk through 2026—plus the signals that will move odds next.

#Venezuela#Maria Corina Machado#prediction markets
geopoliticsJAN 9, 202672 MIN READ

Maduro, Venezuela 2026: Regime Stability, Prediction Markets, and the Political Crisis

Prediction markets badly mispriced Venezuela’s 2026 shock—but the Chavista regime survived Maduro’s capture. This outline maps the odds, drivers, and scenarios analysts should track when writing about Venezuela’s regime stability through 2026.

#Venezuela#Maduro#prediction markets
cryptoDEC 15, 202558 MIN READ

Bitcoin Price Prediction 2025 & Ethereum Price Targets: What Crypto Markets and Prediction Markets Are Really Pricing In

Bitcoin 150K or 200K? Ethereum 5K or 6K? And what happens if Satoshi moves? This deep dive connects prediction markets, ETF flows, halving history, and institutional forecasts to reveal how bullish crypto markets really are for 2025—and which catalysts could flip the odds.

#bitcoin#ethereum#crypto markets
politicsDEC 15, 202557 MIN READ

How Prediction Markets See the 2028 Presidential Election: Democratic Nomination, Political Outsiders, and Celebrity Candidates

Polymarket and other exchanges are pouring millions into sub‑1% long shots for the 2028 Democratic nomination — from Michelle Obama to MrBeast. Here’s what these speculative bets reveal about an unusually open field, the role of celebrity, and how traders can use the odds.

#prediction markets#2028 presidential election#Democratic nomination 2028
politicsDEC 15, 202570 MIN READ

Donald Trump Out 2025? How 25th Amendment Rules, Presidential Succession, and Political Stability Markets Price the Risk He Doesn’t Finish the Year

Prediction markets are giving Donald Trump roughly even odds of *not* finishing 2025 in office. This deep dive breaks down what those prices actually imply—across health, resignation, impeachment, the 25th Amendment, and broader U.S. political stability—so traders and risk analysts can size the trade instead of just reacting to headlines.

#US politics#prediction markets#Donald Trump
macroDEC 15, 202551 MIN READ

US Recession 2025? What 1% Prediction Market Odds Get Right—and Wrong—About the Cycle

Prediction markets say there’s only a 1% chance of a US recession in 2025. Classic indicators and institutional forecasts say the odds are much higher. This deep dive unpacks the disconnect—and how macro investors should trade it.

#US recession 2025#prediction markets#economic indicators
geopoliticsDEC 15, 202584 MIN READ

How Prediction Markets Are Pricing 2025 Political Risk: China Leadership, Russia‑Ukraine Ceasefire, and Jerome Powell’s Fed

China leadership 2025, Russia‑Ukraine ceasefire 2025, and Jerome Powell’s tenure as Fed Chair form a three‑pillar test of global stability. Using prediction markets and historical base rates, we show how traders are pricing each risk, why the implied odds of a “stable 2025” are low, and what that means for macro portfolios.

#prediction markets#geopolitics#China
geopoliticsDEC 12, 202591 MIN READ

Russia War Strategic Roadmap 2025: Scenarios, Constraints, and Market Signals

How far can Moscow push its war in 2025? This roadmap unpacks Russia’s military objectives, economic resilience, foreign support, and occupation plans—and translates them into concrete scenarios and signals for prediction-market traders.

#Russia war strategic roadmap 2025#Russia#Ukraine war
geopoliticsDEC 12, 2025114 MIN READ

Ukraine War Strategic Roadmap 2025: Scenarios, Odds, and Trading the Next Phase of the Conflict

Prediction markets are rapidly repricing the Ukraine war as a long positional struggle rather than a short, decisive campaign. This roadmap breaks down the 2025 military options, Western aid constraints, and diplomatic endgames—then translates them into concrete scenarios and trading implications.

#Ukraine war strategic roadmap 2025#Ukraine#Russia
politicsDEC 12, 202573 MIN READ

Gavin Newsom December 2025: How California’s Governor Is Shaping the 2028 Presidential Odds

As of December 2025, prediction markets see Gavin Newsom as a top-tier 2028 contender—but California’s deficits, homelessness, and climate fights could move those odds fast. Here’s the data, the history, and how to trade it.

#Gavin Newsom#December 2025#2028 election