Treasury Yield Expectations Shifting Dramatically — Recession Pricing

The probability that 10-year Treasury yields drop to 3.9% surged +14¢ to 65%, while the Fed holding rates steady in April is near-certain at 98%. Markets are pricing a future where the Fed is eventually forced to cut aggressively. Combined with 32% US recession odds and oil surging +12%, this stagflation setup creates cross-asset opportunities.