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Public Thesis Dashboard

Causal models monitored 24/7 across Kalshi and Polymarket. Confidence updates and edge detection refresh every 15 minutes.

Active

7

Edges tracked

1,982

Avg conviction

47%

Heartbeat

15min

Confidence distribution

13 theses · max bucket 6

0%25%50%75%100%
42%
25pp
California 2026 Governor: Steyer Overvalued, Hilton Tail Value Ignored
19 edges-15.1%2d ago
46%
8pp
California 2026 Governor: Mahan Underpriced at 15¢. The mailman's son from Watsonville has the stron
9 edges-14.3%2d ago
38%
15pp
DOGE cut federal workforce aggressively. Now those roles are needed for wartime — State Department, ·1
224 edges+15.5%18m ago
46%
30pp
US military assets pinned in Middle East — largest deployment since 2003. Pacific theater is exposed·2
114 edges-9.4%2h ago
68%
3pp
US freezes Russian assets, sanctions Iran, bombs Iran — each action tells the world the dollar syste
274 edges+31.3%17m ago
67%
22pp
Stagflation traps the Fed in an impossible triangle. Powell stays until Warsh confirmation. Trump in
194 edges+40%23h ago
22%
Hormuz blockade disrupts fertilizer supply chains. Fertilizer prices spike, US farm costs surge, foo
318 edges+90.8%17m ago
5%
Trump cannot exit the Iran war gracefully. His operating system does not support de-escalation. Each
97 edges+13.5%2mo ago
Low conviction (5)

Recent Signals

22%[Hormuz blockade disrupts ]Thesis confidence declined to 0.22 as energy markets (gasoline and WTI) show sig17m ago
68%[US freezes Russian assets]Recent market movements show volatility in precious metals and energy-linked con17m ago
38%[DOGE cut federal workforc]The thesis confidence decreased slightly to 0.35 due to persistent uncertainty r18m ago
25%[Hormuz blockade disrupts ]The thesis remains stable as market data reflects ongoing supply chain friction 1h ago
69%[US freezes Russian assets]The growth of non-dollar trade infrastructure faces reality checks regarding sca1h ago
38%[DOGE cut federal workforc]Confidence decreased slightly due to labor market strength indicators potentiall1h ago

Top Edges

K36¢+60¢How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?
K75¢+60¢Will average **gas prices** be below $3.60 by Dec 31, 2026?
K6¢+60¢Will BTC outperform S&P 500 Total Return Index?
K21¢+59¢Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.40 by Dec 3
K31¢+59¢Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.00 by Dec 3
P7¢+58¢May Inflation US - Annual: ≥4.4%
K18¢+58¢Will average **gas prices** be above $5.60 by Dec 31, 2026?
K12¢+58¢Will average **gas prices** be above or below $7.20 by Dec 3

All thesis monitored 24/7 by the SimpleFunctions heartbeat engine.

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