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7 active·1349 edges·Kalshi + Polymarket·15 min heartbeat

California 2026 Governor: Steyer Overvalued, Hilton Tail Value Ignored

43 edges.042 BA+2.6%16m ago

California 2026 Governor: Mahan Underpriced at 15¢. The mailman's son from Watsonville has the stron

30 edges.043 BA+6.2%17m ago

DOGE cut federal workforce aggressively. Now those roles are needed for wartime — State Department, ·1↳

73 edges.036 BA+6.4%16m ago

US military assets pinned in Middle East — largest deployment since 2003. Pacific theater is exposed·1↳

42 edges.031 BA+2.5%16m ago

US freezes Russian assets, sanctions Iran, bombs Iran — each action tells the world the dollar syste

107 edges.034 BA+159.6%15m ago

Stagflation traps the Fed in an impossible triangle. Powell stays until Warsh confirmation. Trump in

84 edges.050 BA+18.7%15m ago

Hormuz blockade disrupts fertilizer supply chains. Fertilizer prices spike, US farm costs surge, foo

140 edges.045 BA+235.5%15m ago

Trump cannot exit the Iran war gracefully. His operating system does not support de-escalation. Each

97 edges.048 BA+13.5%16d ago

Low conviction (5)

The United States will launch a ground invasion of Iran. After 5 weeks of airstrikes, the US faces t

102 edges.026 BA+2.1%12d ago

MAGA splits over Iran war. Anti-interventionist wing vs hawks. Joe Kent resignation is the signal. I

132 edges.030 BA+24.1%16d ago

Putin profits from Iran war oil prices. Russian military budget fully funded. Ukraine peace talks st

164 edges.035 BA+133.1%16d ago

Oil above $100 drives electricity costs up. Data center operating costs surge. AI companies delay or

137 edges.026 BA+50.3%16d ago

The Hormuz Strait is America's final battle — not because it will lose militarily, but because the c

198 edges.033 BA+153%18d ago

Recent Signals

▲32%[Hormuz blockade disrupts ]Thesis confidence increased from 0.28 to 0.32 following strong validation of the15m ago

▼25%[US freezes Russian assets]The broader market interest in BTC and gold hedging instruments has seen sharp r15m ago

▲71%[Stagflation traps the Fed]The thesis remains robust as market pricing for long-term Fed funds rates shifts15m ago

—45%[US military assets pinned]The Strait of Hormuz crisis transitioned to a sustained friction regime, validat16m ago

—55%[California 2026 Governor:]Democratic field signals show very slight consolidation pressure reflected in XB16m ago

▲29%[California 2026 Governor:]Mahan's latest homelessness reduction statistics strengthen the governing record17m ago

Top Edges

K70¢+55¢Will Rand Paul vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?

P93¢+53¢Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by...?: May 15

P87¢+52¢Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?: June 30

K14¢+49¢Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.00 by Dec 3

K79¢+49¢Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the S

P23¢+49¢US recession by end of 2026?

K27¢+45¢Will average **gas prices** be above $6.00 by Dec 31, 2026?

P11¢+45¢US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by...?: April 15

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