Public Thesis Dashboard
Causal models monitored 24/7 across Kalshi and Polymarket. Confidence updates and edge detection refresh every 15 minutes.
Active
5
Edges tracked
2,042
Avg conviction
42%
Heartbeat
15min
Confidence distribution
9 theses · max bucket 4
0%25%50%75%100%
67%
California 2026 Governor: Steyer Overvalued, Hilton Tail Value Ignored
70 edges.019 BA-9.6%32m ago
25%
▼13ppCalifornia 2026 Governor: Mahan Underpriced at 15¢. The mailman's son from Watsonville has the stron
34 edges.015 BA-4.1%33m ago
20%
▼33ppDOGE cut federal workforce aggressively. Now those roles are needed for wartime — State Department, ·1↳
363 edges.027 BA+5%30m ago
73%
▲28ppStagflation traps the Fed in an impossible triangle. Powell stays until Warsh confirmation. Trump in
367 edges.029 BA+53.8%30m ago
25%
▲3ppHormuz blockade disrupts fertilizer supply chains. Fertilizer prices spike, US farm costs surge, foo
673 edges.044 BA+112.4%29m ago
Low conviction (4)
1%
▼46ppThe United States will launch a ground invasion of Iran. After 5 weeks of airstrikes, the US faces t
102 edges.026 BA+2.1%4mo ago
0%
▼11ppMAGA splits over Iran war. Anti-interventionist wing vs hawks. Joe Kent resignation is the signal. I
132 edges.030 BA+24.1%5mo ago
0%
▼4ppPutin profits from Iran war oil prices. Russian military budget fully funded. Ukraine peace talks st
164 edges.035 BA+133.1%5mo ago
2%
▼5ppOil above $100 drives electricity costs up. Data center operating costs surge. AI companies delay or
137 edges.026 BA+50.3%5mo ago
Recent Signals
—25%[Hormuz blockade disrupts ]Market data shows significant volatility in short-term Hormuz transit probabilit29m ago
—20%[DOGE cut federal workforc]Thesis confidence declined to 0.17 as market price moves suggest the 'stress tes30m ago
▲73%[Stagflation traps the Fed]Market pricing shows Treasury yields remaining firm, marginally supporting Fed c30m ago
—67%[California 2026 Governor:]Thesis confidence decreased slightly to 0.62 because the Steyer price move to ze32m ago
—25%[California 2026 Governor:]No material change to the core thesis. While there is increased buy-side depth f33m ago
—25%[Hormuz blockade disrupts ]Thesis confidence declined to 0.23 due to two factors: the USDA's formal priorit1h ago
Top Edges
K12¢+60¢Will average **gas prices** be above $6.00 by Dec 31, 2026?
K6¢+60¢How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?
K80¢+60¢Will there be more than 25 transit calls through the Strait
K10¢+60¢Will the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) fo
P32¢+59¢Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?: December 31
K22¢+59¢Will average **gas prices** be above or below $2.60 by Dec 3
P7¢+59¢Japan recession in 2026?
K34¢+59¢Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.70 by Dec 3
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