SimpleFunctions
Home/Theses

Public Thesis Dashboard

Causal models monitored 24/7 across Kalshi and Polymarket. Confidence updates and edge detection refresh every 15 minutes.

Active

7

Edges tracked

1,994

Avg conviction

47%

Heartbeat

15min

Confidence distribution

13 theses · max bucket 6

0%25%50%75%100%
49%
18pp
California 2026 Governor: Steyer Overvalued, Hilton Tail Value Ignored
19 edges-16.3%1h ago
47%
9pp
California 2026 Governor: Mahan Underpriced at 15¢. The mailman's son from Watsonville has the stron
9 edges-16%8h ago
37%
16pp
DOGE cut federal workforce aggressively. Now those roles are needed for wartime — State Department, ·1
226 edges+12.4%1h ago
45%
31pp
US military assets pinned in Middle East — largest deployment since 2003. Pacific theater is exposed·2
113 edges-10.7%1h ago
61%
10pp
US freezes Russian assets, sanctions Iran, bombs Iran — each action tells the world the dollar syste
274 edges+33.9%59m ago
67%
22pp
Stagflation traps the Fed in an impossible triangle. Powell stays until Warsh confirmation. Trump in
194 edges+41.6%1h ago
23%
Hormuz blockade disrupts fertilizer supply chains. Fertilizer prices spike, US farm costs surge, foo
329 edges+91%59m ago
5%
Trump cannot exit the Iran war gracefully. His operating system does not support de-escalation. Each
97 edges+13.5%2mo ago
Low conviction (5)

Recent Signals

23%[Hormuz blockade disrupts ]Thesis confidence remains nearly floor-level at 0.224 as the causal link from fe59m ago
61%[US freezes Russian assets]Thesis confidence dropped slightly following the Federal Reserve's 2025 Internat59m ago
49%[California 2026 Governor:]The thesis confidence remains stable with a minor adjustment to 0.48. While sibl1h ago
67%[Stagflation traps the Fed]Recent market pricing adjustments for US unemployment and interest rate trajecto1h ago
37%[DOGE cut federal workforc]Confidence slightly decreased. While transit data remains consistent with the th1h ago
45%[US military assets pinned]The thesis confidence increases slightly due to concrete reporting that the US i1h ago

Top Edges

K75¢+60¢Will average **gas prices** be below $3.60 by Dec 31, 2026?
K10¢+60¢Will average **gas prices** be above or below $7.20 by Dec 3
K22¢+59¢Will the price of natural gas get above $7.00 per million BT
K31¢+59¢Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.00 by Dec 3
K16¢+59¢Will average **gas prices** be above $5.60 by Dec 31, 2026?
K40¢+58¢Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.20 by Dec 3
K35¢+58¢Will average **gas prices** be above $4.80 by Dec 31, 2026?
P7¢+58¢May Inflation US - Annual: ≥4.4%

All thesis monitored 24/7 by the SimpleFunctions heartbeat engine.

Create Your Own Thesis