Public Thesis Dashboard
Causal models monitored 24/7 across Kalshi and Polymarket. Confidence updates and edge detection refresh every 15 minutes.
Active
5
Edges tracked
1,672
Avg conviction
38%
Heartbeat
15min
Confidence distribution
9 theses · max bucket 4
0%25%50%75%100%
43%
▼24ppCalifornia 2026 Governor: Steyer Overvalued, Hilton Tail Value Ignored
31 edges.019 BA-17.7%58m ago
25%
▼13ppCalifornia 2026 Governor: Mahan Underpriced at 15¢. The mailman's son from Watsonville has the stron
25 edges.020 BA-1.9%59m ago
14%
▼39ppDOGE cut federal workforce aggressively. Now those roles are needed for wartime — State Department, ·1↳
323 edges.033 BA+3%57m ago
81%
▲36ppStagflation traps the Fed in an impossible triangle. Powell stays until Warsh confirmation. Trump in
237 edges.031 BA+39.8%58m ago
25%
▲3ppHormuz blockade disrupts fertilizer supply chains. Fertilizer prices spike, US farm costs surge, foo
521 edges.038 BA+92.8%56m ago
Low conviction (4)
1%
▼46ppThe United States will launch a ground invasion of Iran. After 5 weeks of airstrikes, the US faces t
102 edges.026 BA+2.1%3mo ago
0%
▼11ppMAGA splits over Iran war. Anti-interventionist wing vs hawks. Joe Kent resignation is the signal. I
132 edges.030 BA+24.1%3mo ago
0%
▼4ppPutin profits from Iran war oil prices. Russian military budget fully funded. Ukraine peace talks st
164 edges.035 BA+133.1%3mo ago
2%
▼5ppOil above $100 drives electricity costs up. Data center operating costs surge. AI companies delay or
137 edges.026 BA+50.3%3mo ago
Recent Signals
▼25%[Hormuz blockade disrupts ]A Chinese-owned tanker successfully transiting the blockade slightly weakens the56m ago
—14%[DOGE cut federal workforc]Thesis confidence declined slightly as market signals for institutional disrupti57m ago
—81%[Stagflation traps the Fed]Recent market signals, including CPI-related price movements and Fed rate hike e58m ago
▲43%[California 2026 Governor:]The original thesis focusing on Democratic fragmentation and Steyer overvaluatio58m ago
▲43%[California 2026 Governor:]FORK_PROPOSED (auto-fork disabled): The primary-focused fragmentation nodes are 58m ago
—25%[California 2026 Governor:]No material developments identified; recent price movements in secondary markets59m ago
Top Edges
P13¢+60¢US recession by end of 2026?
K13¢+59¢Will average **gas prices** be above $6.00 by Dec 31, 2026?
K32¢+59¢Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.00 by Dec 3
K21¢+59¢Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >91.99 on Nov
P26¢+59¢What will Kevin Warsh say during June Press Conference?: Dep
K18¢+58¢How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?
K8¢+58¢Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in July 2026?
K83¢+58¢Will Iran’s average daily crude oil production for July 2026
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