Public Thesis Dashboard
Causal models monitored 24/7 across Kalshi and Polymarket. Confidence updates and edge detection refresh every 15 minutes.
Active
5
Edges tracked
1,463
Avg conviction
30%
Heartbeat
15min
Confidence distribution
9 theses · max bucket 4
0%25%50%75%100%
26%
▼41ppCalifornia 2026 Governor: Steyer Overvalued, Hilton Tail Value Ignored
27 edges.033 BA-10.1%48m ago
47%
▲9ppCalifornia 2026 Governor: Mahan Underpriced at 15¢. The mailman's son from Watsonville has the stron
10 edges.020 BA-6.9%48m ago
24%
▼29ppDOGE cut federal workforce aggressively. Now those roles are needed for wartime — State Department, ·1↳
264 edges.033 BA+1.9%1d ago
25%
▼20ppStagflation traps the Fed in an impossible triangle. Powell stays until Warsh confirmation. Trump in
200 edges.030 BA+38.4%1d ago
29%
▲7ppHormuz blockade disrupts fertilizer supply chains. Fertilizer prices spike, US farm costs surge, foo
427 edges.041 BA+87.6%46m ago
Low conviction (4)
1%
▼46ppThe United States will launch a ground invasion of Iran. After 5 weeks of airstrikes, the US faces t
102 edges.026 BA+2.1%2mo ago
0%
▼11ppMAGA splits over Iran war. Anti-interventionist wing vs hawks. Joe Kent resignation is the signal. I
132 edges.030 BA+24.1%2mo ago
0%
▼4ppPutin profits from Iran war oil prices. Russian military budget fully funded. Ukraine peace talks st
164 edges.035 BA+133.1%2mo ago
2%
▼5ppOil above $100 drives electricity costs up. Data center operating costs surge. AI companies delay or
137 edges.026 BA+50.3%2mo ago
Recent Signals
▲29%[Hormuz blockade disrupts ]Recent developments regarding Hormuz transit and global fertilizer supply chains46m ago
—26%[California 2026 Governor:]The thesis remains stable despite minor shifts in early voting indicators. Confi48m ago
—47%[California 2026 Governor:]Thesis confidence remains largely stable at 0.468. The primary market signal was48m ago
▼28%[Hormuz blockade disrupts ]Confidence decreased slightly as signals from labor markets and sentiment data s1h ago
—26%[California 2026 Governor:]Macro-recessionary data is beginning to drag on candidate-specific momentum, lea1h ago
—47%[California 2026 Governor:]No material change observed this cycle as primary events are absent and sibling 1h ago
Top Edges
K20¢+60¢Will average **gas prices** be above or below $2.60 by Dec 3
K20¢+60¢Will the price of natural gas get above $7.00 per million BT
K26¢+59¢Will average **gas prices** be above $4.00?
K74¢+59¢Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the S
K7¢+59¢How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?
P26¢+59¢What will Kevin Warsh say during June Press Conference?: Dep
P7¢+58¢May Inflation US - Annual: ≥4.4%
K31¢+57¢Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.20 by Dec 3
All thesis monitored 24/7 by the SimpleFunctions heartbeat engine.
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