Public Thesis Dashboard
Causal models monitored 24/7 across Kalshi and Polymarket. Confidence updates and edge detection refresh every 15 minutes.
Active
7
Edges tracked
1,994
Avg conviction
47%
Heartbeat
15min
Confidence distribution
13 theses · max bucket 6
0%25%50%75%100%
49%
▼18ppCalifornia 2026 Governor: Steyer Overvalued, Hilton Tail Value Ignored
19 edges.032 BA-16.3%1h ago
47%
▲9ppCalifornia 2026 Governor: Mahan Underpriced at 15¢. The mailman's son from Watsonville has the stron
9 edges.044 BA-16%8h ago
37%
▼16ppDOGE cut federal workforce aggressively. Now those roles are needed for wartime — State Department, ·1↳
226 edges.033 BA+12.4%1h ago
45%
▼31ppUS military assets pinned in Middle East — largest deployment since 2003. Pacific theater is exposed·2↳
113 edges.027 BA-10.7%1h ago
61%
▼10ppUS freezes Russian assets, sanctions Iran, bombs Iran — each action tells the world the dollar syste
274 edges.024 BA+33.9%59m ago
67%
▲22ppStagflation traps the Fed in an impossible triangle. Powell stays until Warsh confirmation. Trump in
194 edges.030 BA+41.6%1h ago
23%
Hormuz blockade disrupts fertilizer supply chains. Fertilizer prices spike, US farm costs surge, foo
329 edges.037 BA+91%59m ago
5%
Trump cannot exit the Iran war gracefully. His operating system does not support de-escalation. Each
97 edges.048 BA+13.5%2mo ago
Low conviction (5)
1%
▼46ppThe United States will launch a ground invasion of Iran. After 5 weeks of airstrikes, the US faces t
102 edges.026 BA+2.1%1mo ago
0%
▼11ppMAGA splits over Iran war. Anti-interventionist wing vs hawks. Joe Kent resignation is the signal. I
132 edges.030 BA+24.1%2mo ago
0%
▼4ppPutin profits from Iran war oil prices. Russian military budget fully funded. Ukraine peace talks st
164 edges.035 BA+133.1%2mo ago
2%
▼5ppOil above $100 drives electricity costs up. Data center operating costs surge. AI companies delay or
137 edges.026 BA+50.3%2mo ago
2%
▼33ppThe Hormuz Strait is America's final battle — not because it will lose militarily, but because the c
198 edges.033 BA+153%2mo ago
Recent Signals
▲23%[Hormuz blockade disrupts ]Thesis confidence remains nearly floor-level at 0.224 as the causal link from fe59m ago
▼61%[US freezes Russian assets]Thesis confidence dropped slightly following the Federal Reserve's 2025 Internat59m ago
—49%[California 2026 Governor:]The thesis confidence remains stable with a minor adjustment to 0.48. While sibl1h ago
▲67%[Stagflation traps the Fed]Recent market pricing adjustments for US unemployment and interest rate trajecto1h ago
—37%[DOGE cut federal workforc]Confidence slightly decreased. While transit data remains consistent with the th1h ago
—45%[US military assets pinned]The thesis confidence increases slightly due to concrete reporting that the US i1h ago
Top Edges
K75¢+60¢Will average **gas prices** be below $3.60 by Dec 31, 2026?
K10¢+60¢Will average **gas prices** be above or below $7.20 by Dec 3
K22¢+59¢Will the price of natural gas get above $7.00 per million BT
K31¢+59¢Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.00 by Dec 3
K16¢+59¢Will average **gas prices** be above $5.60 by Dec 31, 2026?
K40¢+58¢Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.20 by Dec 3
K35¢+58¢Will average **gas prices** be above $4.80 by Dec 31, 2026?
P7¢+58¢May Inflation US - Annual: ≥4.4%
All thesis monitored 24/7 by the SimpleFunctions heartbeat engine.
Create Your Own Thesis