Public Thesis Dashboard
Causal models monitored 24/7 across Kalshi and Polymarket. Confidence updates and edge detection refresh every 15 minutes.
Active
7
Edges tracked
1,982
Avg conviction
47%
Heartbeat
15min
Confidence distribution
13 theses · max bucket 6
0%25%50%75%100%
42%
▼25ppCalifornia 2026 Governor: Steyer Overvalued, Hilton Tail Value Ignored
19 edges.037 BA-15.1%2d ago
46%
▲8ppCalifornia 2026 Governor: Mahan Underpriced at 15¢. The mailman's son from Watsonville has the stron
9 edges.056 BA-14.3%2d ago
38%
▼15ppDOGE cut federal workforce aggressively. Now those roles are needed for wartime — State Department, ·1↳
224 edges.033 BA+15.5%18m ago
46%
▼30ppUS military assets pinned in Middle East — largest deployment since 2003. Pacific theater is exposed·2↳
114 edges.032 BA-9.4%2h ago
68%
▼3ppUS freezes Russian assets, sanctions Iran, bombs Iran — each action tells the world the dollar syste
274 edges.026 BA+31.3%17m ago
67%
▲22ppStagflation traps the Fed in an impossible triangle. Powell stays until Warsh confirmation. Trump in
194 edges.031 BA+40%23h ago
22%
Hormuz blockade disrupts fertilizer supply chains. Fertilizer prices spike, US farm costs surge, foo
318 edges.032 BA+90.8%17m ago
5%
Trump cannot exit the Iran war gracefully. His operating system does not support de-escalation. Each
97 edges.048 BA+13.5%2mo ago
Low conviction (5)
1%
▼46ppThe United States will launch a ground invasion of Iran. After 5 weeks of airstrikes, the US faces t
102 edges.026 BA+2.1%1mo ago
0%
▼11ppMAGA splits over Iran war. Anti-interventionist wing vs hawks. Joe Kent resignation is the signal. I
132 edges.030 BA+24.1%2mo ago
0%
▼4ppPutin profits from Iran war oil prices. Russian military budget fully funded. Ukraine peace talks st
164 edges.035 BA+133.1%2mo ago
2%
▼5ppOil above $100 drives electricity costs up. Data center operating costs surge. AI companies delay or
137 edges.026 BA+50.3%2mo ago
2%
▼33ppThe Hormuz Strait is America's final battle — not because it will lose militarily, but because the c
198 edges.033 BA+153%2mo ago
Recent Signals
▼22%[Hormuz blockade disrupts ]Thesis confidence declined to 0.22 as energy markets (gasoline and WTI) show sig17m ago
▼68%[US freezes Russian assets]Recent market movements show volatility in precious metals and energy-linked con17m ago
—38%[DOGE cut federal workforc]The thesis confidence decreased slightly to 0.35 due to persistent uncertainty r18m ago
▲25%[Hormuz blockade disrupts ]The thesis remains stable as market data reflects ongoing supply chain friction 1h ago
▼69%[US freezes Russian assets]The growth of non-dollar trade infrastructure faces reality checks regarding sca1h ago
—38%[DOGE cut federal workforc]Confidence decreased slightly due to labor market strength indicators potentiall1h ago
Top Edges
K36¢+60¢How high will the price of fertilizer get this year?
K75¢+60¢Will average **gas prices** be below $3.60 by Dec 31, 2026?
K6¢+60¢Will BTC outperform S&P 500 Total Return Index?
K21¢+59¢Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.40 by Dec 3
K31¢+59¢Will average **gas prices** be above or below $5.00 by Dec 3
P7¢+58¢May Inflation US - Annual: ≥4.4%
K18¢+58¢Will average **gas prices** be above $5.60 by Dec 31, 2026?
K12¢+58¢Will average **gas prices** be above or below $7.20 by Dec 3
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