Opinions
Analysis, tutorials, and essays on prediction markets, causal models, and agent-driven trading.
ESSAYMar 17, 20265 min read
AI Agents Don't Need More Data. They Need Judgment.
The bottleneck for AI agents in financial markets isn't data access — it's the ability to structure beliefs, track causation, and know when they're wrong.
ai-agentsjudgmentcausal-modelagent-infrastructureessay
ANALYSISMar 17, 20264 min read
Prediction Markets Are Already Pricing the Post-Terminal-Value World
Chamath says terminal value is collapsing. Prediction markets never had terminal value to begin with — every contract has an expiry date. They're the native pricing instrument for a short-duration world.
terminal-valuechamathdcfcausal-modelprediction-markets
TECHNICALMar 17, 20264 min read
Kalshi API: From Data to Decisions (Not Just Another Wrapper)
Every Kalshi API article stops at "here's how to call the endpoint." This one starts there.
kalshi-apitrading-botorderbookmcpclaude-code
TUTORIALMar 17, 20264 min read
How to Build a Thesis-Driven Prediction Market Strategy
Not how to build a bot. How to structure your thinking about a prediction market bet — from causal tree to executable edge.
kalshitrading-strategycausal-modeledge-detectionprediction-markets