Bernadette Smith to win Michigan Republican Senate Primary
Bernadette Smith is priced at 1¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 0¢ bid, 1¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 6 inside Michigan Republican Senate Primary Winner.
Price history
1¢ current
−49¢Contract brief
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Michigan. If no 2026 Michigan Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Republican Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Outcome
Bernadette Smith
Rank
#2 of 6
Leader
Mike Rogers 95¢
Range
0¢-95¢
Family volume
$8K
Identifier
0x0c828395...08ce
May 27, 2026, 8:50 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
1¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$617
Family rank
#2 of 6
6 outcomes · Michigan Republican Senate Primary Winner
Closes
Aug 4, 2026
Family volume
$8K
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 1¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Michigan. If no 2026 Michigan Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Republican Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Aug 4, 2026
Identifier
0x0c828395…08ce
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on kalshi at 3¢, -2¢ versus this page.
Event family
Michigan Republican Senate Primary Winner.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$8K
Outcomes
6
Highest price
Mike Rogers 95¢
Current share
8%
Mike Rogers
polymarket · 0xfa7a559ac626ee079bd1a58b78a9c32fc9c1d3129e72f7f28b7209b2368a54c1
Kent Benham
polymarket · 0xe835154859611ad7d0ddc48f6a0ce1f7b7349bbbc95253921a7d3fe7ae0db410
Fred Heurtebise
polymarket · 0x9678ed1006f50bfbada8b897a68043d5c35c58b669881b76b4a6304b1e8fadc3
Bernadette Smith
polymarket · 0x0c8283951da284188a40f193542c20f112e16f6bb74216d96951a347303608ce
Andrew Kamal
polymarket · 0x51f870791b837d4222670ee4a17605ae23a88586a5ce2fa12809eba8db4e93fe
Genevieve Scott
polymarket · 0x022e7826fc3a60e86dedea13d1efeeba98b2ab06d35eec1f13b6a650e641da0e
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.