Gavin Newsom · Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Gavin Newsom is priced at 24¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 24¢ bid, 24¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 16 inside Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028.
Price history
24¢ current
−2¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Outcome
Gavin Newsom
Rank
#1 of 16
Leader
Gavin Newsom 24¢
Range
1¢-24¢
Family volume
$655.1M
Identifier
0x0f49db97...9f75
May 28, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · 8m ago
Implied probability
Bid
24¢
Ask
24¢
Spread
0¢
24h volume
$21K
Family rank
#1 of 16
16 outcomes · Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Closes
Nov 7, 2028
Family volume
$655.1M
Orderbook snapshot
24 / 24¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Nov 7, 2028
Identifier
0x0f49db97…9f75
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on kalshi at 23¢, +1¢ versus this page.
Event family
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$655.1M
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Gavin Newsom 24¢
Current share
4%
Gavin Newsom
polymarket · 0x0f49db97f71c68b1e42a6d16e3de93d85dbf7d4148e3f018eb79e88554be9f75
Oprah Winfrey
polymarket · 0xe06a7e94cf2fa8dc2085b7610fe16e9be1cde6654f34d365c13da1149b276c61
Bernie Sanders
polymarket · 0x30cfb887558b20373a984da60c372fe5a90c0296aa6d8bb413a8aa7543846da2
Chelsea Clinton
polymarket · 0xf2e51acfbb6d0414dc2ace81b7dc2af7c165e443dcb91f6caa7aab6d6ab4f06d
Andrew Yang
polymarket · 0x450810ae738a0ff820d3248f2b24937f63fb8c8cf422ed2a915125adb4d9d3c8
Hillary Clinton
polymarket · 0x663b88d3a8f2341bb8d878709dc78632bcaf7512e577bd15521e5d8ed933efbc
LeBron James
polymarket · 0x8b203037c7c0e21b500314f8398d2a8ea294b7ce1f4f9185f426425a3505bc45
Tim Walz
polymarket · 0x3265b10daeb30dbcc3214bd02e488551d0a5d3028392f4152e4750b943fbfc91
George Clooney
polymarket · 0x822e61527476cabf98927e3aad385c5ecdae7086f945535f2c1fd9ae8dbfa46e
Beto O’Rourke
polymarket · 0x8ecd1d15e521b7d1020ad5596cc981c8764e9dcfbc3648f582e1a5138aee7185
Kim Kardashian
polymarket · 0x0f8ef3cc906ba7ba94a44724738df44bdd5f73e59e40c9c8b4ff8569e349643c
Phil Murphy
polymarket · 0x29283b56d3eec6d1d89fff51793d9d2e01579d2379b1d3e9ebda175d3561e809
MrBeast
polymarket · 0xc44edcfdedb422bae8ff1803e2178d1ee025fc41efd81400ccbede709e018841
Zohran Mamdani
polymarket · 0x3535fb2f4aef6619dde8b367cb5e5d209526bb496d5d9778428c58a0252435e3
Liz Cheney
polymarket · 0x46dbd48d6bde5b81edb480e0f676a2cdda6c6b592c4d86a9367c7ad5a9870195
Hunter Biden
polymarket · 0x1945a8b23e313ed7423b6b6fd556f9ab5578900376b565a61dc480a5f4f35d21
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
political
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.