SimpleFunctions

2026 Grammy nominees for Best New Artist

The Beaches is priced at 7¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 1¢ bid, 7¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 16 inside 2026 Grammy nominees for Best New Artist.

Price history

7¢ current

+5¢
0¢5¢10¢
May 22, 2026May 22, 2026

Contract brief

If The Beaches has been nominated for Best New Artist at the 69th Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

The Beaches

Rank

#5 of 16

Leader

Ella Langley 96¢

Range

1¢-96¢

Family volume

$19

Identifier

KXGRAMMYNOMNAOTY-69-BEA

May 28, 2026, 7:06 PM UTC · 0m ago

Implied probability

7¢
Latest venue quote
May 28, 2026, 7:06 PM UTC · 0m ago

Bid

Ask

Spread

Reported volume

$1

Family rank

#5 of 16

16 outcomes · 2026 Grammy nominees for Best New Artist

Closes

Nov 1, 2027

Family volume

$19

Orderbook snapshot

1 / 7¢

Kalshi
6¢ spread
BidSize
100¢150
AskSize
7¢500
82¢200
83¢2.0K
97¢50
99¢200

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If The Beaches has been nominated for Best New Artist at the 69th Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Nov 1, 2027

Identifier

KXGRAMMYNOMNAOTY-69-BEA

SF Signal
Regime
maker

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

maker

Score

0.295

Observability

none

Event type

cultural

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.