Democratic party · HOUSEFL23-26
Democratic party is priced at 86¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 82¢ bid, 89¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside HOUSEFL23-26.
Price history
86¢ current
+24¢Contract brief
If the House member sworn in for FL-23 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Democratic party
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
Democratic party 82¢
Range
12¢-82¢
Family volume
$248
Identifier
HOUSEFL23-26-D
May 24, 2026, 11:38 PM UTC · 8m ago
Implied probability
Bid
82¢
Ask
89¢
Spread
7¢
24h volume
$248
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · HOUSEFL23-26
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$248
Orderbook snapshot
82 / 89¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the House member sworn in for FL-23 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
HOUSEFL23-26-D
Event family
HOUSEFL23-26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$248
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Democratic party 82¢
Current share
100%
Democratic party
kalshi · HOUSEFL23-26-D
Republican party
kalshi · HOUSEFL23-26-R
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.