Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of United Kingdom?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of United Kingdom?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2030. This market shows extreme yield asymmetry, with Yes positions offering 197.4% annualized return versus just 3.7% for No, suggesting the 14¢ price may undervalue Farage's odds relative to market consensus or reflect genuine skepticism about his path to PM.
Analysis
This market shows extreme yield asymmetry, with Yes positions offering 197.4% annualized return versus just 3.7% for No, suggesting the 14¢ price may undervalue Farage's odds relative to market consensus or reflect genuine skepticism about his path to PM. The $53,759 open interest against minimal 24-hour volume ($10) indicates illiquidity and potential difficulty exiting positions, while the 2¢ spread is reasonable given the thin trading. With 1,356 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, the market has substantial time for political shifts, though the 7-day price stability at 12¢ suggests recent sentiment has stabilized around this level.
Resolution rules
If Nigel Farage is the next Prime Minister of United Kingdom before 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNEXTUKPM-30-NF yes 100