Javier Milei to win Argentina Presidential Election
Javier Milei is priced at 45¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 44¢ bid, 45¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 11 inside Argentina Presidential Election Winner.
Price history
45¢ current
−2¢Contract brief
A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
Outcome
Javier Milei
Rank
#1 of 11
Leader
Javier Milei 45¢
Range
0¢-45¢
Family volume
$92K
Identifier
0x338f6f3e...fd3b
May 28, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · 8m ago
Implied probability
Bid
44¢
Ask
45¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$127
Family rank
#1 of 11
11 outcomes · Argentina Presidential Election Winner
Closes
Oct 24, 2027
Family volume
$92K
Orderbook snapshot
44 / 45¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
A presidential election scheduled to be held in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Oct 24, 2027
Identifier
0x338f6f3e…fd3b
Event family
Argentina Presidential Election Winner.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$92K
Outcomes
11
Highest price
Javier Milei 45¢
Current share
43%
Javier Milei
polymarket · 0x338f6f3e5ff30f189a7228290a66b9a4213722032da364c8635b496589ddfd3b
Axel Kicillof
polymarket · 0xf35a561cedd2aab1aad1744ea4b05e91d38edb4c0b64c76196bd11a4cf0b6bde
Mauricio Macri
polymarket · 0x9e7ff979adcbb3d593393fb7f476db93c89ca7deb8de68085c02080a0c793d11
Dante Gebel
polymarket · 0x22f05510fff106bf6675e3e7117ba2d56bae312a874d8686e3b2cdc0199a79cb
Sergio Massa
polymarket · 0xea83e5554bfb997ea9d6569133e45165e8613dcc8fe6d0ae2a1c6cc1ae7c3a7f
Juan Grabois
polymarket · 0x68aea89f7e5655a443de983bd7dfe30b76c2653b1ca72bf5f4fb2f892d050532
Myriam Bregman
polymarket · 0x988f13398922692e93bf73656e30c629b0131104880904ebd186d85dcffb14ab
Juan Schiaretti
polymarket · 0xa1114c872481cc31998fb0b6fc77050620f570fc3725ad1f3869d7589e5e3da3
Victoria Villarruel
polymarket · 0x8f5585c574b22f57399e0f7fdc2710000cd2530dd17e173fe911452bef46e534
Facundo Manes
polymarket · 0xb93645da237ae1fadcb886dc4155d5cbdf9d5f87ff1a1c4e6fa42099da0b9f7b
Esteban Bullrich
polymarket · 0xfe7c59436e336feea943fd69674b5a42f7bec980154b5fd43be00b7ade2f34a9
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.