Will Camilo Santana finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
Will Camilo Santana finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is priced at 2¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 2¢ bid, 2¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
2¢ current
−48¢Contract brief
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Outcome
Will Camilo Santana finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$59K
Identifier
0x8576ba0a...a08f
May 27, 2026, 10:01 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
2¢
Ask
2¢
Spread
0¢
24h volume
$2K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Oct 4, 2026
Family volume
$59K
Orderbook snapshot
2 / 2¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Oct 4, 2026
Identifier
0x8576ba0a…a08f
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$59K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Camilo Santana finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election 2¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.