SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

MLB Player Hits Prop Markets — 8 contracts, SF signal on every row.

8 live Kalshi contracts (74 audited). Median implied probability sits at 23%. Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Fit: mean deviation 27.6pp · cheapest KXMLBHIT-26MAY241920TEXLAA-LAAJADELL7-3 · richest KXMLBHIT-26MAY241920TEXLAA-LAAJADELL7-1.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXMLBHIT.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXMLBHIT
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXMLBHIT
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXMLBHIT",
    "label": "MLB Player Hits Prop Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 8,
    "volume24hSum": 14,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": {
    "seriesType": "unknown",
    "hazardRate": 0.01178
  }
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 24 May 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100+182.0
Vol Flow$14+11%
min $0max $10.4K
Breadth43%-26.4pp
min -100%max 100%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 12:15 UTC
May 17past 7d · UTCMay 24 · 10:23

Live contracts

8

Median IY

23¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$14

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

—

no 24h moves

MLB Player Hits Prop Markets — liquidity topography (top 2 of 8 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 6454.4 → 51415.4%

$101d7d51415.428934.96454.4

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in MLB Player Hits Prop Markets

Showing top 8 of 8

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Brandon Nimmo: 1+ hits?: Brandon Nimmo: 1+62¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$10
Mike Trout: 2+ hits?: Mike Trout: 2+17¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$4
Jo Adell: 3+ hits?: Jo Adell: 3+4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Mike Trout: 1+ hits?: Mike Trout: 1+58¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Brandon Nimmo: 2+ hits?: Brandon Nimmo: 2+22¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Jo Adell: 1+ hits?: Jo Adell: 1+63¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Brandon Nimmo: 3+ hits?: Brandon Nimmo: 3+4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Jo Adell: 2+ hits?: Jo Adell: 2+23¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
8 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 24 May 2026 12:08:24 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXMLBHIT →

Category view

All Kalshi Sports markets. /markets/category/sports →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →