Prediction Markets with Indicator Analysis
47,000+ active markets from Kalshi and Polymarket, each scored on a five-indicator stack (IY · CRI · EE · LAS · CVR) and overlaid on a yield curve when sibling markets exist. Updated every 15 minutes.
What we track
IY — Implied Yield
Annualized return if held to expiry. Bond-trader vocabulary applied to binary contracts.
CRI — Cliff Risk Index
How fast a market is approaching resolution, scaled by remaining days. High CRI = market is actively deciding.
EE — Event Overround
Multi-outcome arbitrage signal. Sum of YES prices across mutually exclusive outcomes minus 1.
RV — Realized Volatility
Annualized stddev of price returns from 48h history. How much this market is actually moving.
VR — Vol Ratio
RV / theoretical max vol. A martingale in [0,1] has variance ≤ p(1-p). VR measures how much of that budget is consumed. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead.
IAR — Info Arrival Rate
Meaningful price changes per hour (≥1c moves). Direct proxy for information flow.
τ-days · LAS · CVR
Time-to-resolution as a continuous unit; LAS for liquidity availability and CVR for contagion velocity on warm-cron-covered markets.
Read the full framework: Indicator Stack · Valuation Funnel
Top markets by implied yield
Other surfaces
- → Indicator screener — interactive filters across all 47K markets
- → Yield curves — term structure across event families
- → Calibration — how accurate are these markets historically (60K resolved sample)
- → Concepts — long-form essays on the indicator framework