SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

MLB Game Run Total Markets — 143 contracts, SF signal on every row.

143 live Kalshi contracts (66 audited). Median implied probability sits at 55%. 70 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXMLBTOTAL-26MAY241920TEXLAA-7 +63c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Fit: mean deviation 38.4pp · cheapest KXMLBTOTAL-26MAY252110COLLAD-14 · richest KXMLBTOTAL-26MAY251907MIATOR-2.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXMLBTOTAL.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXMLBTOTAL
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXMLBTOTAL
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXMLBTOTAL",
    "label": "MLB Game Run Total Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 143,
    "volume24hSum": 4158.21,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": {
    "seriesType": "unknown",
    "hazardRate": 0.05107
  }
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 24 May 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100+70.0
Vol Flow$4.2K-62%
min $309max $395.0K
Breadth100%0.0pp
min 69%max 100%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 23:15 UTC
May 18past 7d · UTCMay 24 · 22:23

Live contracts

143

Median IY

55¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$4.2K

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

+63¢

KXMLBTOTAL-26MAY241920TEXLAA-7

MLB Game Run Total Markets — liquidity topography (top 69 of 143 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 280.8 → 43596.7%

$10$100$1,0001d7d43596.721938.8280.8

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in MLB Game Run Total Markets

Showing top 20 of 143

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Philadelphia vs San Diego Total Runs?: Over 7.5 runs scored48¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$811
Cincinnati vs New York M Total Runs?: Over 7.5 runs scored48¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$777
Seattle vs A's Total Runs?: Over 9.5 runs scored53¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$339
Houston vs Texas Total Runs?: Over 4.5 runs scored86¢
IY >999%Cliff 6Edge —RVol —Resid —$198
Philadelphia vs San Diego Total Runs?: Over 3.5 runs scored85¢
IY >999%Cliff 6Edge —RVol —Resid —$189
Minnesota vs Chicago WS Total Runs?: Over 2.5 runs scored94¢
IY 611%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$169
Cincinnati vs New York M Total Runs?: Over 2.5 runs scored94¢
IY 598%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$150
Tampa Bay vs Baltimore Total Runs?: Over 7.5 runs scored50¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$137
Washington vs Cleveland Total Runs?: Over 2.5 runs scored95¢
IY 483%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$113
Philadelphia vs San Diego Total Runs?: Over 1.5 runs scored96¢
IY 380%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$113
St. Louis vs Milwaukee Total Runs?: Over 2.5 runs scored94¢
IY 611%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$104
Chicago C vs Pittsburgh Total Runs?: Over 2.5 runs scored94¢
IY 615%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$96
Tampa Bay vs Baltimore Total Runs?: Over 2.5 runs scored94¢
IY 615%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$92
Colorado vs Los Angeles D Total Runs?: Over 11.5 runs scored25¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$78
Philadelphia vs San Diego Total Runs?: Over 2.5 runs scored94¢
IY 582%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$67
St. Louis vs Milwaukee Total Runs?: Over 8.5 runs scored42¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$64
Miami vs Toronto Total Runs?: Over 2.5 runs scored95¢
IY 478%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$63
Arizona vs San Francisco Total Runs?: Over 1.5 runs scored96¢
IY 386%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$60
Tampa Bay vs Baltimore Total Runs?: Over 1.5 runs scored96¢
IY 401%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$50
St. Louis vs Milwaukee Total Runs?: Over 1.5 runs scored96¢
IY 399%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$50
143 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in MLB Game Run Total Markets

From market_changes
15h agoKalshi
Texas vs Los Angeles A Total Runs?: Over 6.5 runs scored
65¢2→65 (+63)
open →
15h agoKalshi
Texas vs Los Angeles A Total Runs?: Over 5.5 runs scored
62¢2→62 (+60)
open →
15h agoKalshi
Texas vs Los Angeles A Total Runs?: Over 4.5 runs scored
62¢2→62 (+60)
open →
15h agoKalshi
Texas vs Los Angeles A Total Runs?: Over 7.5 runs scored
54¢2→54 (+52)
open →
15h agoKalshi
Texas vs Los Angeles A Total Runs?: Over 2.5 runs scored
50¢2→50 (+48)
open →
15h agoKalshi
Texas vs Los Angeles A Total Runs?: Over 3.5 runs scored
47¢2→47 (+45)
open →
15h agoKalshi
Texas vs Los Angeles A Total Runs?: Over 8.5 runs scored
46¢2→46 (+44)
open →
3h agoKalshi
Seattle vs A's Total Runs?: Over 5.5 runs scored
84¢42→84 (+42)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 24 May 2026 22:38:25 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXMLBTOTAL →

Category view

All Kalshi Sports markets. /markets/category/sports →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →