60+ · Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May
60+ is priced at 0¢ midpoint on Polymarket. Current book: 0¢ bid, 0¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 5 inside Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?.
Price history
0¢ current
−3¢Contract brief
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Outcome
60+
Rank
#5 of 5
Leader
0-10 89¢
Range
0¢-89¢
Family volume
$693K
Identifier
0xd5e92e7b...3339
May 28, 2026, 6:47 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
0¢
Spread
0¢
24h volume
$4K
Family rank
#5 of 5
5 outcomes · Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?
Closes
May 31, 2026
Family volume
$693K
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 0¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
May 31, 2026
Identifier
0xd5e92e7b…3339
Event family
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$693K
Outcomes
5
Highest price
0-10 89¢
Current share
16%
0-10
polymarket · 0x20ae35bd487697804e51fbd1e2a2019b977ba0ead721d3cd743211c3e16b15e1
10-20
polymarket · 0xaa9e7883499172e6585601542570e05965039265604c8d256c9ff7f149a811d7
20-40
polymarket · 0x09b4c47a6308364eb408ba749909816582120894769648e9ebc39eb8fe6076cf
40-60
polymarket · 0x8c6e7f850d768bfa5c2295a5b04d3682050f5deaa78dca95816da1651e1c66a0
60+
polymarket · 0xd5e92e7b74622744a547269f546396efff4f4c30af7a0ce7af51bbaa67a83339
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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SimpleFunctions context
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Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 0% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.