SIMPLEFUNCTIONS
Enter Terminal

The Agentic Terminal
for Prediction Markets.

Live markets from Kalshi & Polymarket. Agents monitor every contract, detect events, and ship tradeable research reports to your desk.

Enter TerminalRead Research

Market Intelligence

Daily BriefingWednesday, February 4, 2026
Full Report

Prediction markets are almost all‑in on Kevin Warsh as Trump’s next Federal Reserve Chair, with alternative candidates left in the single digits. Macro pricing points to a soft landing, with only 6% odds on two Fed cuts in 2026 and 1% on a 2025 recession, even as traders see an 80% chance the U.S. government was shut down on January 31. Geopolitical risk remains in focus with Iran succession markets near a coin toss and only long‑shot odds assigned to a Bitcoin surge toward headline-grabbing levels.

Key Developments
politics

Trump's Potential Fed Chair Nominee: Kevin Warsh

97%
macro

2026 Fed Rate Cut Expectations and Recession Risk

6%
geopolitics

Succession Uncertainty for Iran's Supreme Leader

56%
politics

Imminent US Government Shutdown Risk

80%
crypto

Bitcoin's 2026 Price Trajectory and Catalysts

1%
politics

Supreme Court Case: V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. Trump

0%

01. The Terminal

Information arbitrage, visualized.

[F1] Sources — All links & snippets used to form the view
[F2] Comps — Historical events the engine thinks look similar
[F3] Export — One-click export to JSON / CSV / Slack
ENGINE: SPFUNCTIONS_V4 • LAST UPDATED: 17:20 UTC
HOT TRADES
FED-DEC-25•14:32:01
+3.5%

Fed Dec '25: The Re-Inflation Risk

Signal
Shelter Inflation Re-acceleration
Rec
SHORT (EV+)
US-BTC-RESERVE•14:31:45
+12.0%

US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Senate Vote Analysis

Signal
Senate Whip Count / Lobbying Disclosures
Rec
LONG (EV+)
TAIWAN-2026•14:30:12
-1.1%

Taiwan Strait: Naval Blockade Probability

Signal
Satellite Imagery / PLA Naval Drills
Rec
LONG VOLATILITY
GPT-6-RELEASE•14:28:55
+0.5%

GPT-6 Release: Compute Constraints vs. Scaling

Signal
Data Center Power Permits
Rec
SHORT (Fade the Hype)
GOP-SENATE-26•14:25:30
-2.0%

2026 Midterms: Senate Control Early Indicators

Signal
Generic Ballot / State Polls
Rec
LONG GOP
OIL-HORMUZ•14:22:10
+1.2%

Strait of Hormuz: Closure Risk Pricing

Signal
Tanker Insurance Premiums
Rec
LONG TAIL RISK
NVDA-ANTITRUST•14:18:05
+4.1%

Nvidia Antitrust: DOJ Case Strength

Signal
DOJ Staffing / Whistleblower Reports
Rec
HEDGE
EURO-BREAKUP•14:15:22
-0.4%

Eurozone Fragmentation: Italian Debt Spreads

Signal
BTP-Bund Spread / ECB Minutes
Rec
LONG TAIL RISK
APPLE-INDIA-50%•14:12:10
+1.5%

India Manufacturing: Apple Supply Chain Shift

Signal
Foxconn Hiring Data / Local News
Rec
SHORT (Timeline Risk)
MEXICO-BORDER•14:09:45
+2.1%

Mexico Border: Trade Disruption Risk

Signal
Freight Volume / Cartel Activity Reports
Rec
LONG VOLATILITY
UK-EU-REF-26•14:06:30
-0.5%

UK Rejoin EU: Referendum Probability

Signal
UK Polling / Labour Party Manifesto
Rec
SHORT (Political Reality)
NEOM-DELAY•14:03:15
+5.0%

Saudi Neom Project: Funding Crisis

Signal
PIF Bond Issuance / Contractor Reports
Rec
LONG (Project Reality)
>
RPT_902114:32:01 UTC
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

Fed Dec '25: The Re-Inflation Risk

Market Implied
72%
Agent Implied
55%
Recommendation
SHORT (EV+)

Executive Summary: Kalshi markets imply a 72% chance of a rate cut in December 2025. However, our analysis of shelter inflation and wage growth suggests the 'last mile' of disinflation has stalled. The Fed may be forced to hold rates higher for longer than the market anticipates, creating a mispricing in the short end of the curve.

Mechanism of Action
Primary Signal
Wage-Price Spiral
Union settlements in Q3 2025 are driving service sector wages up 4.5% YoY.
Secondary Confirmation
Commodity Supercycle
Copper and Oil prices breaking out, feeding into headline CPI.
Market Implication

Short 2Y Treasuries. Fade the equity rally in rate-sensitive sectors (Utilities, REITs).

Risk Factors

A sudden credit event in CRE (Commercial Real Estate) could force the Fed to cut regardless of inflation.

External Commentary

“Powell is signaling that 'higher for longer' is back on the table if core PCE stays above 2.5%.”

— WSJ Fed Watcher

“The market is fighting the Fed again. Inflation is sticky.”

— Bond King

Probabilistic Scenario Tree
MODEL: BAYESIAN_V4
SCENARIO A: NO CUT
45%

Core CPI prints > 0.3% MoM in Oct/Nov.

SCENARIO B: 25BPS CUT
50%

Labor market cracks; unemployment rises to 4.5%.

SCENARIO C: HIKE
5%

Inflation resurges to > 4% YoY.

LIVE

02. Event Intelligence

Structured event intelligence.

EVENT_ENGINE_V2
ID: RPT_9019TYPE: GEOPOLITICAL_RISKCONFIDENCE: HIGH
14:30:12 UTC

Primary Event

Taiwan Strait: Naval Blockade Probability

Polymarket implies an 18% chance of a naval blockade in 2026. Satellite imagery shows increased PLA naval exercises simulating blockade formations.

Mechanism of Action

Primary Signal
Strength: 9.2/10
Gray Zone Tactics
China testing US resolve with non-lethal blockade measures.
Source: Satellite Imagery (Sentinel-2)
Secondary Confirmation
Strength: 8.5/10
Semiconductor Supply Chain
TSMC stockpiling raw materials suggests preparation for disruption.
Source: Import/Export Customs Data
Tertiary Signal
Strength: 6.0/10
Diplomatic Chatter
US State Department issuing quiet travel advisories for Taiwan.
Source: State Dept API

External Commentary

"The PLA is practicing for a blockade, not an amphibious landing." — Naval War College

"Tech companies are quietly diversifying away from Taiwan." — Supply Chain Analyst

Probability Evolution (30 Days)

Market: 18%Agent: 30%
T-30dT-15dT-7dNow
100%75%50%25%0%

Market Implication

Defense Primes (LMT, RTX)LONG
Semiconductors (SOXX)SHORT
Risk Factors: US naval intervention could escalate a blockade into a hot war rapidly.

Scenario Tree

A: Status Quo70%
B: Blockade25%
C: Invasion5%
Recommended Action
LONG VOLATILITY
Edge: +12%Confidence: High
[F1] Sources[F2] Comps[F3] Export
LIVE

03. Data API

Agentic search & strategy execution.

[Agentic Search] — AI-powered reasoning for prediction markets
[Strategies] — News, arbitrage, long horizon, quant
[Execution] — Automated strategy building & backtesting
News Strategies

Monitor breaking news and social sentiment. Execute trades when information asymmetry is detected.

Arbitrage

Detect price divergences across Kalshi, Polymarket, and other venues. Capture risk-free spreads.

Long Horizon

Build positions based on macro thesis. Hold through volatility with conviction from deep research.

Quant Strategies

Statistical models, mean reversion, momentum. Backtest and deploy systematic approaches.

DATA_API_V1
STATUS: ONLINELATENCY: 12msRATE_LIMIT: UNLIMITED
API_KEY: sk_live_...892

Strategy Definition

JSONPython
{
  "strategy_type": "news_arbitrage",
  "parameters": {
    "markets": ["kalshi", "polymarket"],
    "assets": ["politics", "economics"],
    "min_confidence": 0.85,
    "max_slippage": 0.02
  },
  "agent_config": {
    "reasoning_model": "gpt-4-turbo",
    "search_depth": "deep",
    "sources": [
      "reuters_wire",
      "bloomberg_terminal",
      "legislative_filings"
    ]
  },
  "execution": {
    "mode": "auto_hedge",
    "horizon": "intraday"
  }
}
Validating strategy logic... OK

Strategy Backtest (YTD)

Sharpe: 2.4Alpha: +32.5%
JanMarJunSepNow
+50%+25%0%-25%

Live Execution Stream

14:32:01[INFO]Scanning 142 markets for arbitrage opportunities...
14:32:05[DETECT]Divergence found: "Fed Rate Cut March" (Kalshi vs Polymarket)
14:32:06[AGENT]Reasoning: Powell speech sentiment hawkish, market overreacting.
14:32:08[EXEC]Placing LIMIT BUY @ 0.42 (Size: $5,000)
14:32:09[FILLED]Order #89921 filled at 0.42. Position active.
14:32:15[AGENT]Monitoring news feed for confirmation signals...
14:32:22[SIGNAL]Reuters: "Fed officials signal patience on rate cuts"
14:32:30[PNL]Position +$420 (+8.4%) — holding per strategy rules.
[Docs] API Reference[SDK] Python / Node.js[Status] Systems Normal
CONNECTED

How it works

01.

Stream the world.

We ingest real-time data from prediction markets (Kalshi, Polymarket), news wires (Reuters, AP), and social feeds (X, Reddit) to build a complete picture of global events.

INGEST_NODE_01
STATUS: ACTIVE
Throughput: 4.2k msg/sLatency: 12ms
02.

Agentic Research.

Our autonomous agents validate assumptions against historical data, cross-reference sources, and generate structured research reports to explain the "why" behind the price.

AGENT_WORKER_04
TASK: TAIWAN_RISK
Confidence Score
12%
Verify naval exercise zone coordinates
Cross-reference shipping lane deviations
Analyze sentiment in local Weibo feeds
Check semiconductor inventory stockpiles
Validating assumptions...Queue: 12
03.

Actionable Delivery.

Receive high-conviction alerts via the live terminal, JSON API, or Slack. We filter the noise so you can trade on the signal.

DELIVERY_NODE_09
STATUS: PUSHING
Webhooks: 12 ActiveLatency: 45ms

FAQ

Questions from professional traders.

LAST_UPDATED: 2026-01-21 • VERSION: 2.0
Platform & Data

What data sources do you aggregate?

DATA

We ingest real-time order books and trades from Kalshi and Polymarket via WebSocket. News feeds include Reuters, AP, Bloomberg Terminal API, and curated X/Twitter accounts. We also monitor legislative filings, satellite imagery providers, and shipping data for specific event types.

What is the latency on market data?

INFRA

Sub-50ms from exchange to our servers. The terminal displays data with ~100ms end-to-end latency. For API users, we offer co-location options with <10ms latency for high-frequency strategies.

How does Agentic Search work?

AI

Our AI agents use GPT-4 Turbo with retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) over our proprietary knowledge base. When you ask a question, agents search across news, market data, and historical events to synthesize a reasoned answer with cited sources.

Can I backtest strategies before deploying?

API

Yes. The Data API includes a full backtesting engine with historical data going back to market inception. You can test news-based, arbitrage, and quant strategies with realistic slippage and fee models.

Trading & Execution

Is this a trading bot or broker?

LEGAL

Neither. SimpleFunctions is an intelligence and research platform. We provide signals, analysis, and strategy tools. You execute trades on Kalshi/Polymarket directly. We never hold funds or route orders.

What strategy types are supported?

STRATEGY

Four core strategies: (1) News-based — trade on information asymmetry from breaking events. (2) Arbitrage — capture price divergences across venues. (3) Long Horizon — macro thesis positions with deep research. (4) Quant — statistical models, mean reversion, momentum.

How do you detect arbitrage opportunities?

ARB

We continuously compare implied probabilities across Kalshi, Polymarket, and other venues. When spreads exceed transaction costs + slippage threshold, we flag the opportunity. Our agents also identify correlated markets that should move together but diverge.

What is the API rate limit?

API

Standard tier: 1,000 requests/minute. Pro tier: 10,000 requests/minute with WebSocket streaming. Enterprise: Unlimited with dedicated infrastructure. All tiers include full historical data access.

Still have questions?
Our team responds within 24 hours. We love talking to traders.
Contact Support→