SIMPLEFUNCTIONS
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The Bloomberg Terminal
for Prediction Markets.

Live markets from Kalshi & Polymarket. Agents monitor every contract, detect events, and ship tradeable research reports to your desk.

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01. The Terminal

Information arbitrage, visualized.

[F1] Sources — All links & snippets used to form the view
[F2] Comps — Historical events the engine thinks look similar
[F3] Export — One-click export to JSON / CSV / Slack
ENGINE: SPFUNCTIONS_V4 • LAST UPDATED: 17:20 UTC
HOT TRADES
FED-DEC-25•14:32:01
+3.5%

Fed Dec '25: The Re-Inflation Risk

Signal
Shelter Inflation Re-acceleration
Rec
SHORT (EV+)
US-BTC-RESERVE•14:31:45
+12.0%

US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Senate Vote Analysis

Signal
Senate Whip Count / Lobbying Disclosures
Rec
LONG (EV+)
TAIWAN-2026•14:30:12
-1.1%

Taiwan Strait: Naval Blockade Probability

Signal
Satellite Imagery / PLA Naval Drills
Rec
LONG VOLATILITY
GPT-6-RELEASE•14:28:55
+0.5%

GPT-6 Release: Compute Constraints vs. Scaling

Signal
Data Center Power Permits
Rec
SHORT (Fade the Hype)
GOP-SENATE-26•14:25:30
-2.0%

2026 Midterms: Senate Control Early Indicators

Signal
Generic Ballot / State Polls
Rec
LONG GOP
OIL-HORMUZ•14:22:10
+1.2%

Strait of Hormuz: Closure Risk Pricing

Signal
Tanker Insurance Premiums
Rec
LONG TAIL RISK
NVDA-ANTITRUST•14:18:05
+4.1%

Nvidia Antitrust: DOJ Case Strength

Signal
DOJ Staffing / Whistleblower Reports
Rec
HEDGE
EURO-BREAKUP•14:15:22
-0.4%

Eurozone Fragmentation: Italian Debt Spreads

Signal
BTP-Bund Spread / ECB Minutes
Rec
LONG TAIL RISK
APPLE-INDIA-50%•14:12:10
+1.5%

India Manufacturing: Apple Supply Chain Shift

Signal
Foxconn Hiring Data / Local News
Rec
SHORT (Timeline Risk)
MEXICO-BORDER•14:09:45
+2.1%

Mexico Border: Trade Disruption Risk

Signal
Freight Volume / Cartel Activity Reports
Rec
LONG VOLATILITY
UK-EU-REF-26•14:06:30
-0.5%

UK Rejoin EU: Referendum Probability

Signal
UK Polling / Labour Party Manifesto
Rec
SHORT (Political Reality)
NEOM-DELAY•14:03:15
+5.0%

Saudi Neom Project: Funding Crisis

Signal
PIF Bond Issuance / Contractor Reports
Rec
LONG (Project Reality)
>
RPT_902114:32:01 UTC
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

Fed Dec '25: The Re-Inflation Risk

Market Implied
72%
Agent Implied
55%
Recommendation
SHORT (EV+)

Executive Summary: Kalshi markets imply a 72% chance of a rate cut in December 2025. However, our analysis of shelter inflation and wage growth suggests the 'last mile' of disinflation has stalled. The Fed may be forced to hold rates higher for longer than the market anticipates, creating a mispricing in the short end of the curve.

Mechanism of Action
Primary Signal
Wage-Price Spiral
Union settlements in Q3 2025 are driving service sector wages up 4.5% YoY.
Secondary Confirmation
Commodity Supercycle
Copper and Oil prices breaking out, feeding into headline CPI.
Market Implication

Short 2Y Treasuries. Fade the equity rally in rate-sensitive sectors (Utilities, REITs).

Risk Factors

A sudden credit event in CRE (Commercial Real Estate) could force the Fed to cut regardless of inflation.

External Commentary

“Powell is signaling that 'higher for longer' is back on the table if core PCE stays above 2.5%.”

— WSJ Fed Watcher

“The market is fighting the Fed again. Inflation is sticky.”

— Bond King

Probabilistic Scenario Tree
MODEL: BAYESIAN_V4
SCENARIO A: NO CUT
45%

Core CPI prints > 0.3% MoM in Oct/Nov.

SCENARIO B: 25BPS CUT
50%

Labor market cracks; unemployment rises to 4.5%.

SCENARIO C: HIKE
5%

Inflation resurges to > 4% YoY.

LIVE

How it works

01.

Stream the world.

We ingest real-time data from prediction markets (Kalshi, Polymarket), news wires (Bloomberg, Reuters), and social feeds (X, Reddit) to build a complete picture of global events.

INGEST_NODE_01
STATUS: ACTIVE
Throughput: 4.2k msg/sLatency: 12ms
02.

Agentic Research.

Our autonomous agents validate assumptions against historical data, cross-reference sources, and generate structured research reports to explain the "why" behind the price.

AGENT_WORKER_04
TASK: TAIWAN_RISK
Confidence Score
12%
Verify naval exercise zone coordinates
Cross-reference shipping lane deviations
Analyze sentiment in local Weibo feeds
Check semiconductor inventory stockpiles
Validating assumptions...Queue: 12
03.

Actionable Delivery.

Receive high-conviction alerts via the live terminal, JSON API, or Slack. We filter the noise so you can trade on the signal.

DELIVERY_NODE_09
STATUS: PUSHING
Webhooks: 12 ActiveLatency: 45ms

02. Event Intelligence

Structured event intelligence.

EVENT_ENGINE_V2
ID: RPT_9019TYPE: GEOPOLITICAL_RISKCONFIDENCE: HIGH
14:30:12 UTC

Primary Event

Taiwan Strait: Naval Blockade Probability

Polymarket implies an 18% chance of a naval blockade in 2026. Satellite imagery shows increased PLA naval exercises simulating blockade formations.

Mechanism of Action

Primary Signal
Strength: 9.2/10
Gray Zone Tactics
China testing US resolve with non-lethal blockade measures.
Source: Satellite Imagery (Sentinel-2)
Secondary Confirmation
Strength: 8.5/10
Semiconductor Supply Chain
TSMC stockpiling raw materials suggests preparation for disruption.
Source: Import/Export Customs Data
Tertiary Signal
Strength: 6.0/10
Diplomatic Chatter
US State Department issuing quiet travel advisories for Taiwan.
Source: State Dept API

External Commentary

"The PLA is practicing for a blockade, not an amphibious landing." — Naval War College

"Tech companies are quietly diversifying away from Taiwan." — Supply Chain Analyst

Probability Evolution (30 Days)

Market: 18%Agent: 30%
T-30dT-15dT-7dNow
100%75%50%25%0%

Market Implication

Defense Primes (LMT, RTX)LONG
Semiconductors (SOXX)SHORT
Risk Factors: US naval intervention could escalate a blockade into a hot war rapidly.

Scenario Tree

A: Status Quo70%
B: Blockade25%
C: Invasion5%
Recommended Action
LONG VOLATILITY
Edge: +12%Confidence: High
[F1] Sources[F2] Comps[F3] Export
LIVE
Coming Soon • Phase 2

The Thesis Engine.

Turn your macro view into a basket of prediction markets.

Describe your view of the next few years — “soft landing, AI melt-up, no shooting war, sticky inflation” — and the engine will:

From Narrative→Scenario Weights→Portfolio
1. Parse.

Parse your narrative into scenario weights and constraints.

2. Scan.

Scan Kalshi, Polymarket and other venues for clean expressions.

3. Propose.

Propose a basket of contracts and sizing that pays off if your thesis is right.

Currently in design with a small group of funds and high-volume traders. Request access to join the Phase 2 cohort.

Coverage & Constraints

Venues

Kalshi (US macro & politics), Polymarket (global politics, macro, crypto).

Focus

Liquid, event-driven markets where information edge actually matters.

What we don't do

We are not a broker or execution venue. We don’t hold funds, route orders, or run an auto-trading bot.

FAQ

Common questions from professional traders and analysts.

Is this a trading bot?

No. SimpleFunctions is an intelligence layer. We provide the data, alerts, and structured analysis. You execute the trades.

Which markets are supported?

We currently support major US political and economic markets on Kalshi and Polymarket, plus select high-volume crypto catalysts.

How fast is the 'Live Ticker'?

We connect directly to exchange WebSockets. Latency is minimal, designed for active monitoring of market structure changes.

What is 'Agent Commentary'?

Our AI agents monitor news and social sentiment 24/7. When a market moves, they generate a report explaining *why* it moved, citing sources.

Can I customize the feed?

Yes. You can filter by category (Politics, Econ, Crypto) and set alerts for specific volatility or volume thresholds.

When is the Worldview Compiler coming?

We are currently in Phase 1 (Terminal & Intelligence). The Worldview Compiler (Phase 2) will roll out to early access users in Q4.

Get Terminal Access

Join the waitlist for the first professional-grade intelligence terminal for prediction markets.

No spam, ever. We’re curating an initial cohort of traders who actually move markets on Kalshi, Polymarket, and crypto venues.