Don't wait for the odds to move.
SimpleFunctions is an autonomous AI research agent that sits upstream of Kalshi, Polymarket, and crypto markets. It monitors Google Trends, X/Reddit sentiment, and news in real time, and surfaces divergences before they show up in contract prices.
- Built for U.S. macro, politics, and event traders who are tired of alt-tabbing between Google Trends, X, and dashboards.
- Quant + sentiment: search volumes, social mood, and historical reaction patterns in one place.
- Agentic AI: a 24/7 researcher that adapts to new markets and emerging narratives without hand-holding.
- Opinionated US-first coverage: Kalshi markets, Polymarket relaunch, and relevant on-chain flows.
First cohort: a small group of traders who care about edge, not dashboards-for-the-sake-of-dashboards.
Fed cut ≥ 25 bps in December?
Kalshi
Search: Searches for "Fed cut December" +380% vs 7d avg
Sentiment: Finance X is flipping from skeptical to pricing in a cut.
US election 2028 – Dem win?
Polymarket
Search: Query volume for candidate name at 12-month high.
Sentiment: Social sentiment skewing negative after debate clip.
Bitcoin ETF approved by Q4?
Crypto
Search: "Bitcoin ETF approval" +260% in last 2 hours.
Sentiment: News + Reddit threads converging on imminent SEC move.
Named hurricane landfall in FL this season?
Kalshi
Search: Hurricane track queries spiking in NOAA-related regions.
Sentiment: Local news headlines increasing in volume and urgency.
Trend divergence
Flags when search or sentiment moves faster than the market, so you can lean into mispricings instead of reacting to them.
Agentic researcher
Given a contract, the agent automatically finds the right search terms, sources, and patterns without you babysitting it.
*Target latency for major US economic and political events under normal conditions.
The problem
Prediction markets move on information. You can't afford to see it last.
On Kalshi, Polymarket, and crypto venues, edge comes from being early to shifts in public attention and sentiment. Today, that means manually checking Google Trends, doomscrolling X, skimming Reddit and news feeds, and trying to stitch it all together before the spread disappears.
Research is clear: search volumes and social mood regularly move before prices. But individual traders can't sustainably watch every query and every feed. You either miss moves, react late, or burn hours per day on noisy dashboards.
Fragmented signals
Trend data lives in silos: Google, X, Reddit, news, alternative data tools. None of them speak prediction-market natively.
Manual polling
Every refresh is manual. You're the one doing the scanning, filtering, and mapping signals to markets while others are placing orders.
No notion of "edge"
Generic dashboards rarely tell you when a trend is big enough, fast enough, or persistent enough to matter for a specific contract.
How SimpleFunctions works
An autonomous AI researcher tuned for prediction markets.
SimpleFunctions behaves like a 24/7 research analyst with one job: surface predictive signals for the markets you care about. It uses agentic AI to decide what to monitor, how to interpret it, and when a pattern is strong enough to flag.
Monitor
Continuously ingests Google search trends, X/Reddit chatter, news headlines, and alternative web signals focused on U.S. events.
Detect
Uses statistical baselines to spot spikes, regime shifts, and divergences across search, sentiment, and traffic patterns.
Map to markets
Links trends to specific Kalshi, Polymarket, and crypto contracts, ranking which markets are most exposed.
Explain & alert
Summarizes what moved, why it matters, and how similar patterns played out historically, then pushes alerts to your dashboard or inbox.
The SimpleFunctions dashboard
One screen, four critical views of the market's information surface.
Instead of juggling tabs, you get a single control panel that pairs prediction-market odds with live trend and sentiment context.
Trending topics & events
A live feed of search and social topics most relevant to U.S. event contracts, ranked by surprise and velocity rather than raw volume.
Example: Example: "unemployment benefits extension" spikes and is linked to Kalshi labor markets before odds fully react.
Prediction market monitors
Side-by-side view of Kalshi and Polymarket odds next to their underlying trend curves, with annotations when the crowd is behind the public.
Example: Example: Fed cut contracts trading flat while related search interest and news coverage climb sharply.
Sentiment & quant widgets
Compact modules summarizing X/Reddit mood, keyword volume, and historical correlations between past spikes and contract moves.
Example: Example: Twitter fear index for a debt ceiling market flips red before spreads widen.
Alerts & watchlists
Configurable triggers on topics, markets, or categories (macro, politics, crypto, weather) so you only see noise when it actually matters.
Example: Example: Alert when "Bitcoin ETF approval" searches hit a 6-month high and relevant Polymarket liquidity crosses a threshold.
Data sources
Built on the signals that actually move markets.
SimpleFunctions doesn't invent synthetic metrics. It leans on ground-truth public behavior data that's already been shown to have predictive power in adjacent domains.
Google search trends
Real-time U.S. query volumes for event-linked phrases: rate cuts, CPI, turnout, hurricane names, regulation keywords, and more.
Historically, spikes in commercial and macro queries have led company revenue surprises and asset price moves.
Social sentiment
X/Twitter, Reddit, and forums, scored for tone and intensity. Fear, optimism, and attention volume are tracked over time for each event.
Multiple studies show that social mood can predict short-term direction across equity and crypto markets.
News & web activity
Headline velocity, topical clusters, and web traffic patterns around key themes: regulation, climate anomalies, geopolitical shocks.
Alternative data tools already exploit this. SimpleFunctions just routes it to prediction markets instead of equities.
Concrete use cases
Where SimpleFunctions actually changes your P&L.
The point isn't another pretty chart. It's catching the trade 30–180 minutes earlier than the rest of the book.
Rate cuts & inflation prints
Ahead of a Kalshi Fed cut market moving, SimpleFunctions flags a synchronized spike in searches for rate cut timelines and dovish commentary across finance X. You lean into Yes while the board still looks sleepy.
Election sentiment swings
A candidate stumbles during a debate. Within minutes, social sentiment and search interest turn sharply negative in key states. The dashboard shows election contracts whose odds haven't caught up.
Crypto catalyst hype cycles
Before a Bitcoin ETF decision, SEC-related keywords and ETF-related traffic explode. The agent highlights specific Polymarket and on-chain markets where positioning looks off relative to the information firehose.
Weather & catastrophe markets
Named hurricane queries and local news coverage climb steadily while storm markets stay cheap. SimpleFunctions treats the divergence as a tradable anomaly, not background noise.
FAQ
Built for serious prediction-market traders, not tourists.
A few things traders usually ask before they hand over an email.
- Which markets does SimpleFunctions focus on first?
- Initial coverage is U.S.-centric: Kalshi economic and political markets, Polymarket contracts relevant to U.S. users, and major crypto catalysts with U.S. regulatory exposure.
- Is this just a wrapper on public APIs?
- No. The value isn't raw data; it's the agentic layer that decides what to watch, how to denoise it, and which markets are actually mispriced given those signals.
- How real-time is it?
- For major U.S. macro and political events, the target is sub-5-minute latency from signal to dashboard update under normal conditions. Exact latency depends on source mix and load.
- Do you place trades for me?
- No. SimpleFunctions is an insights and research surface, not an execution bot. You keep full control of sizing, risk, and positioning.
- How will early access work?
- The first cohort will be a small set of active traders. We'll prioritize people with live exposure on Kalshi, Polymarket, or on-chain venues so we can iterate with real users, not spectators.
- Is this investment advice?
- Absolutely not. This is tooling to help you see information faster. What you do with that information is entirely your call.
Early access
If you're already trading information, this exists for you.
SimpleFunctions is not a mass-market analytics toy. It's an operator tool for people who already think in contracts, basis points, and order books. If that's you, we'd like you in the first cohort.
- Priority access to early features, including more aggressive alerting and experimental quant widgets.
- Direct input on which markets, categories, and venues we prioritize as we scale coverage.