Today's Prediction Markets: Warsh Fed Pick Seen as Near-Lock, Shutdown Odds Stay High, Bitcoin Moonshot Fades
Prediction markets are almost all‑in on Kevin Warsh as Trump’s next Federal Reserve Chair, with alternative candidates left in the single digits. Macro pricing points to a soft landing, with only 6% odds on two Fed cuts in 2026 and 1% on a 2025 recession, even as traders see an 80% chance the U.S. government was shut down on January 31. Geopolitical risk remains in focus with Iran succession markets near a coin toss and only long‑shot odds assigned to a Bitcoin surge toward headline-grabbing levels.
politics•Trump's Potential Fed Chair Nominee: Kevin Warsh97%macro•2026 Fed Rate Cut Expectations and Recession Risk6%geopolitics•Succession Uncertainty for Iran's Supreme Leader56%politics•Imminent US Government Shutdown Risk80%+3 MORE