Fed Frozen: 98% Hold in April, But 36% Chance of Zero Cuts All Year

The April Fed meeting is essentially priced as a non-event at 98% no change. But the real story is 2026: 36% chance of zero rate cuts all year, with inflation expected above 4% (61% odds). Markets see a Fed stuck between stagflation pressures and tariff-driven price shocks. Oil's 12% daily surge only reinforces the hawkish case.