Bid and Ask Prices

The bid price is the highest price a buyer is currently willing to pay for a contract. The ask price is the lowest price a seller is currently willing to accept. Together they define the tradeable price range.

CLI:sf market KXGDP-26Q2-T2.0

Bid and Ask Explained

When you look at a prediction market contract, you don't see one price — you see two:

Bid: "I'll buy at this price." This is what you get if you sell immediately.
Ask: "I'll sell at this price." This is what you pay if you buy immediately.

The "Last Price" Trap

Many platforms prominently display the "last traded price." This can be misleading because:

It might be hours or days old
It might have been a single small trade
The current bid/ask might be far from the last price

Always check the live bid and ask, not just the last price. The CLI shows you real-time bid/ask data.

Buying and Selling

To buy: You either (a) pay the ask price for instant execution, or (b) post a bid at a lower price and wait
To sell: You either (a) accept the bid price for instant execution, or (b) post an ask at a higher price and wait

Bid-Ask and Yes/No

Remember: every prediction market contract has a Yes and No side. If the Yes bid is 42 cents, the No ask is 58 cents (they must sum to $1.00). When you buy Yes at 42 cents, someone is effectively selling No at 58 cents.

Example

Contract: KXGDP-26Q2-T2.0 "Will Q2 2026 GDP exceed 2.0%?"

  Yes bid: $0.62    Yes ask: $0.65
  No bid:  $0.35    No ask:  $0.38

These are equivalent:
  Buying Yes at $0.65  ↔  Selling No at $0.35
  Selling Yes at $0.62 ↔  Buying No at $0.38

Midpoint: $0.635 (market-implied probability: ~63.5%)

Related Terms

Bid-Ask Spread

The bid-ask spread is the difference between the highest price a buyer will pay (bid) and the lowest price a seller will accept (ask). It represents the cost of trading immediately.

Orderbook

An orderbook is a real-time list of all outstanding buy and sell orders for a prediction market contract, organized by price level. It shows the supply and demand at every price point.

Limit Order

A limit order is an instruction to buy or sell a contract at a specified price or better. Unlike market orders, limit orders guarantee your price but not execution — your order only fills if the market reaches your price.

Market Order

A market order is an instruction to buy or sell immediately at the best available price. It guarantees execution but not price — you may experience slippage in thin markets.

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