Simple Functions
GLOSSARY/ANALYSIS

Cross-Venue Analysis

Cross-venue analysis compares pricing of equivalent events across different prediction market platforms (like Kalshi and Polymarket) to find arbitrage opportunities or the best execution venue.

CLI:sf cross-venue

Why Cross-Venue Matters

The same event can trade at different prices on different platforms. This happens because:

  • Different user bases have different information and biases
  • Liquidity varies by platform
  • Fee structures differ
  • Regulatory differences affect participation

Kalshi vs. Polymarket

The two largest prediction markets serve different audiences:

  • Kalshi: US-regulated, attracts institutional and data-driven traders, strong in economic markets
  • Polymarket: Crypto-based, attracts crypto-native and political traders, strong in political markets

Because the audiences differ, prices can diverge — especially for complex or niche events.

Types of Cross-Venue Opportunities

  1. Pure arbitrage: The same event is priced at 30 cents on Kalshi and 40 cents on Polymarket. Buy on Kalshi, sell on Polymarket, lock in a 10-cent risk-free profit.
  2. Best execution: Your thesis has 12 points of edge on Kalshi but 15 points on Polymarket. Trade on the venue with more edge.
  3. Liquidity comparison: A market is illiquid on Kalshi but liquid on Polymarket (or vice versa).

Challenges

Cross-venue trading has friction:

  • Capital is locked on each platform separately
  • Fee structures differ (Kalshi has per-contract fees, Polymarket has different mechanisms)
  • Settlement timing can differ
  • You need accounts on both platforms

Cross-Venue in SimpleFunctions

The sf cross-venue command automatically matches equivalent contracts across platforms and shows price differentials, liquidity comparisons, and net-of-fees edge.

Example

sf cross-venue --thesis recession-2026

Same-event comparison:
Event: "US enters recession by end of 2026"

             Kalshi          Polymarket      Diff
Price:       $0.28           $0.35           7¢
Spread:      3¢              2¢
Volume 24h:  3,200           8,400
Depth:       2,500           12,000
Fee:         ~2¢/contract    ~0.5¢

Your thesis: 42%
Edge (Kalshi):     42-28 = +14pt, net of fees: ~12pt
Edge (Polymarket): 42-35 = +7pt,  net of fees: ~6.5pt

Recommendation: Kalshi has better edge despite lower liquidity.
  But if size >500 contracts, Polymarket may provide better fills.

Related Terms

Executable Edge

Executable edge is edge that can actually be traded — meaning the market has sufficient liquidity, tight enough spreads, and low enough fees for you to profitably capture the mispricing.

Edge

Edge is the difference between the market price of a prediction market contract and your estimated true probability. Positive edge means you believe the contract is mispriced in your favor.

Liquidity

Liquidity is the ease with which you can buy or sell a prediction market contract without significantly affecting its price. Liquid markets have tight spreads, deep orderbooks, and high trading volume.

Edge Detection

Edge detection is the systematic process of scanning prediction markets to find contracts where the market price diverges from your thesis-implied fair value by more than the cost of execution.

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