Harris Dickinson · Next James Bond actor
Harris Dickinson is priced at 7¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 2¢ bid, 13¢ ask, 11¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 15 inside Next James Bond actor?.
Price history
7¢ current
+5¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the above actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter. If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No Bond chosen". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome
Harris Dickinson
Rank
#3 of 15
Leader
No Bond chosen 76¢
Range
0¢-76¢
Family volume
$2.9M
Identifier
0x157b4aeb...30cc
May 27, 2026, 12:38 AM UTC · 11m ago
Implied probability
Bid
2¢
Ask
13¢
Spread
11¢
24h volume
$506
Family rank
#3 of 15
15 outcomes · Next James Bond actor?
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Family volume
$2.9M
Orderbook snapshot
2 / 13¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the above actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter. If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No Bond chosen". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Identifier
0x157b4aeb…30cc
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on kalshi at 10¢, -3¢ versus this page.
Event family
Next James Bond actor.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$2.9M
Outcomes
15
Highest price
No Bond chosen 76¢
Current share
7%
No Bond chosen
polymarket · 0x6a01c1687c781829cc90198cfd3c73f9ce64bca2a8960527868b0ad737e53f89
Callum Turner
polymarket · 0xd7482c59ec03c0def1d1f3caef6e22aa95498a567522de7f0780f1f362ecf522
Harris Dickinson
polymarket · 0x157b4aebf3ff1f45ca5d41bdffb66c3a888a0ceaec9f7a7167e08cf2138130cc
Jacob Elordi
polymarket · 0x4e7734d08c3a532cf0b9c67cfba476f4910bddedf15c5d613d1ef94d1f15e533
Aaron Taylor-Johnson
polymarket · 0x31eaf3b4bfb0c7107250f8aae9dfaf18a821a6c58fe1b5254a1b77542a4c836c
Jack Lowdon
polymarket · 0xe9b672b601ac4a6bcf132490d3ecd48213fc5983262b1f941e996dbc7b47cac6
Robert James-Collier
polymarket · 0xbaf1fe074410506bcd871ee43a6ea0230686b3a0b59eb93d014631fd4214decf
Henry Cavill
polymarket · 0x16d52b2db68983b9078e0299a86096725664ca7a434017922f7ea1c06b92b034
Tom Holland
polymarket · 0xb9e518a563d955037698fec22b03bca649aeb4423fc0999c6862b805e23a1ec9
Paul Mescal
polymarket · 0x0a995babae8f9a1df994c210d2b36f05e8422271af369a33d9b643e65f1bd194
Pierce Brosnan
polymarket · 0x8128163cd9ddf1549bf3d73fe3276857273a768366e4c13d7a6f80e3cb814e2d
James Norton
polymarket · 0xde15533da479594354a3f1a27b53a90ac1812da4d91fba29fe65aa53f3fdc504
Tom Hardy
polymarket · 0x95916211e91a408a5a160b03bfe837277bf3e269f65c2f8ecba3370a392c72a3
Josh O'Connor
polymarket · 0xd32bf453f9f034a5d30cebd29355a49fdf7b083a722b6c218409f4c4bb694a07
Theo James
polymarket · 0x2d116412f432cdb566c6eb4f0f35cf36c9842998085e13a5a0a2a6c01907b837
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
cultural
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.