What is the current probability for "Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 3¢ (3% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on June 30, 2026. 69 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 17079.6% and 16.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket, closing June 30, 2026.

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3¢

Bid/Ask 2/3¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $139.856·OI $9,312.598·Closes Jun 30, 2026·69d remaining

0x4e7734d08c3a532cf0b9c67cfba476f4910bddedf15c5d613d1ef94d1f15e533

7-day price170 snapshots · 22 regime

17¢3¢ current

Apr 81¢Apr 21

Cross-venue

Also on kalshi at 21¢(Δ -18¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.72IY 101.7%Close-time delta 30759h

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the above actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter. If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No Bond chosen". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 17079.6%

IY (No) 16.3%

Adj IY 8540%

CRI 32

Overround -0.1%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	17079.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	16.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	8540%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	32	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:51:09 PM

Observability mediumEvent type cultural

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:38:17 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x4e7734d08c3a532cf0b9c67cfba476f4910bddedf15c5d613d1ef94d1f15e533 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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