Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June is priced at 47¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 46¢ bid, 47¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
47¢ current
−12¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Outcome
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$9.3M
Identifier
0x348cd9ad...2187
May 24, 2026, 11:38 PM UTC · 7m ago
Implied probability
Bid
46¢
Ask
47¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$640K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Family volume
$9.3M
Orderbook snapshot
46 / 47¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Identifier
0x348cd9ad…2187
Event family
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$9.3M
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June 47¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.625
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
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