Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?

The market is pricing a 77% probability that 2026 will see at least one monthly temperature record, reflecting strong consensus on continued warming trends, though the extremely asymmetric implied yields (40.6% for Yes versus 454.8% for No) suggest the No position is severely underpriced relative to tail risk. With $6.3M open interest but only $480K in 24-hour volume and a tight 1¢ spread, liquidity is moderate for the position size, and the neutral regime score of 0.341 indicates no significant momentum despite 269 days to expiry. The flat 7-day price action at 77¢ suggests the market has already priced in climate expectations with limited new information driving recent movement.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution. If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

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