Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record is priced at 78¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 75¢ bid, 81¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
78¢ current
−12¢Contract brief
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution. If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Outcome
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$141K
Identifier
0x37402c8c...6cf2
Jun 8, 2026, 6:38 AM UTC · 27m ago
Implied probability
Bid
75¢
Ask
81¢
Spread
6¢
24h volume
$37
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jan 10, 2027
Family volume
$141K
Orderbook snapshot
75 / 81¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution. If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jan 10, 2027
Identifier
0x37402c8c…6cf2
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on kalshi at 10¢, +68¢ versus this page.
Event family
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$141K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record 78¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
weather
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.