Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 85% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
85%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
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single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$11
1 contracts
Closes
Jan 10, 2027
205 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
0x37402c…6cf2
Analysis
This market asks whether any single month in 2026 will record higher average temperatures than any month in instrumental history. The 32% probability reflects significant uncertainty about whether 2026 will exceed records set in recent years, particularly 2023 and 2024. Temperature trends depend primarily on seasonal patterns, El Niño/La Niña conditions, and underlying climate warming. Current probability reflects disagreement between venues, with Polymarket pricing substantially higher. The main resolution driver is the monthly global temperature data releases from agencies like NOAA and Copernicus throughout 2026, with particular attention to Northern Hemisphere summer months (June-August) when records are most frequently set. December's final data confirmation typically occurs in January 2027.
- ›Recent monthly records were set in 2023-2024; beating these requires either exceptional conditions or measurement of a sustained warming trend
- ›Tropical Pacific conditions (El Niño/La Niña phase) significantly influence global temperature anomalies; current forecasts through 2026 will inform probability revisions
- ›Northern Hemisphere summer months (June-August) historically see the largest monthly temperature anomalies and represent the highest-probability window for record-breaking
- ›Monthly temperature releases from NOAA, Copernicus, and JMA provide the definitive data; each monthly release from May 2026 onward will resolve partial uncertainty
- ›The gap between Kalshi (29%) and Polymarket (80%) suggests markets disagree on climate trend momentum and record-beating likelihood rather than factual disagreement
Recently closed in climate
- Will Germany Ifo business climate for April 2026 be above 84.2last 89% · 1d
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?: 3last 68% · 7d
- 2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?: 3rd hottestlast 96% · 14d
- 2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?: 4th or lowerlast 97% · 44d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (85% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In climate
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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