Will another country leave OPEC in 2026
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026 is priced at 25¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 24¢ bid, 26¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
25¢ current
−3¢Contract brief
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/. This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify. This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Outcome
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$105K
Identifier
0x3d4a1a3e...f441
Jun 8, 2026, 3:08 AM UTC · 15m ago
Implied probability
Bid
24¢
Ask
26¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$473
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$105K
Orderbook snapshot
24 / 26¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/. This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify. This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x3d4a1a3e…f441
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on kalshi at 33¢, -8¢ versus this page.
Event family
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$105K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026 25¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.