Yes · KXLEAVEOPEC-27
Yes is priced at 32¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 30¢ bid, 33¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
32¢ current
−7¢Contract brief
If any member state of OPEC announces they are leaving the organization before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Yes
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$574
Identifier
KXLEAVEOPEC-27
Jun 8, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC · 6m ago
Implied probability
Bid
30¢
Ask
33¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$574
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$574
Orderbook snapshot
30 / 33¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If any member state of OPEC announces they are leaving the organization before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXLEAVEOPEC-27
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on polymarket at 25¢, +7¢ versus this page.
Event family
KXLEAVEOPEC-27.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$574
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Yes 30¢
Current share
100%
Yes
kalshi · KXLEAVEOPEC-27
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 32% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.