June 30 · Israeli parliament dissolved by
June 30 is priced at 59¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 58¢ bid, 59¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 4 inside Israeli parliament dissolved by...?.
Price history
59¢ current
+45¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the sitting Israeli Knesset (Israel's parliament), as of this market's inception, is dissolved between January 27 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Outcome
June 30
Rank
#2 of 4
Leader
July 31 66¢
Range
1¢-66¢
Family volume
$357K
Identifier
0x3f0bc275...1ff8
May 28, 2026, 5:38 PM UTC · 30m ago
Implied probability
Bid
58¢
Ask
59¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$6K
Family rank
#2 of 4
4 outcomes · Israeli parliament dissolved by...?
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Family volume
$357K
Orderbook snapshot
58 / 59¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the sitting Israeli Knesset (Israel's parliament), as of this market's inception, is dissolved between January 27 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Identifier
0x3f0bc275…1ff8
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on kalshi at 54¢, +5¢ versus this page.
Event family
Israeli parliament dissolved by.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$357K
Outcomes
4
Highest price
July 31 66¢
Current share
72%
July 31
polymarket · 0xac1721c071b72e556df41a0c0d3c4d3c0baa599d352bbe92bc8450e06e596021
June 30
polymarket · 0x3f0bc2757babb8bb9971c9f782fe81f9db734c12d84822f1120a90681c991ff8
June 15
polymarket · 0xdbdcd65ce03b31e1c8444c5813f709dd258b7d90d4d81ae644a0351cd26de2d7
May 31
polymarket · 0x232ae0932dad1b4ca049881715f094c1e424604d2fd3e1b0ad01f0893cb3059f
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.