Israeli parliament dissolved by...
Leader sits at 66% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 59%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
July 31
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
59¢
June 30
Spread
7pp
contested
24h volume
$7K
modest
Closes
Jul 31, 2026
63 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Israeli parliament dissolved by
What moved the line
- May 27July 31↑16pp59→75¢ · Polymarket
- May 26July 31↑9pp50→59¢ · Polymarket
- May 28July 31↓9pp75→66¢ · Polymarket
- May 28June 15↓7pp45→38¢ · Polymarket
- May 21June 30↑5pp51→56¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBCDemocratlast 87% · 0d
- TX-18 Democratic Primary Winnerlast 89% · 0d
- TX-33 Democratic Primary Winnerlast 90% · 0d
- Will Trump say "Autism" before Apr 27, 2026last 15% · 3d
- Will Brentford be Relegated from English Premier League in 2025-26 Seasonlast 94% · 3d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.