Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 44% probability that Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?. This contract trades at 44¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. This market is pricing a 57% probability of a Supreme Court vacancy in 2026, but the extremely high implied yield on the "No" side (187.6%) signals significant underpricing of the status quo relative to the risk of judicial turnover.
Analysis
This market is pricing a 57% probability of a Supreme Court vacancy in 2026, but the extremely high implied yield on the "No" side (187.6%) signals significant underpricing of the status quo relative to the risk of judicial turnover. With zero 24-hour volume despite $26.6K open interest and a wide 5¢ spread, liquidity is severely constrained, making the 57¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate. The 124% realized volatility and neutral regime suggest this is a speculative position rather than an efficiently-priced market, particularly given the long 258-day runway to resolution where demographic and health factors could substantially shift expectations.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x4bfb8b7fd515c8a4371ef6fc48289bae5b2736252aa6b710e6edaeeb26d96e3b yes 100