Supreme Court vacancy in 2026
Supreme Court vacancy in 2026 is priced at 37¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 33¢ bid, 40¢ ask, 7¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
37¢ current
+4¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome
Supreme Court vacancy in 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$5K
Identifier
0x4bfb8b7f...6e3b
Jun 8, 2026, 8:38 AM UTC · 6m ago
Implied probability
Bid
33¢
Ask
40¢
Spread
7¢
24h volume
$7
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$5K
Orderbook snapshot
33 / 40¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x4bfb8b7f…6e3b
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on kalshi at —.
Event family
Supreme Court vacancy in 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$5K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Supreme Court vacancy in 2026 37¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 37% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.