Will there be a Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 37% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
37%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
215 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Supreme Court vacancy in 2026
Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?
0x4bfb8b…6e3b
Analysis
Prediction markets currently assign a 52% probability that a new Supreme Court justice will be confirmed by December 31, 2026. While uncertainty persists, names like James Ho at 16% and Amul Tharpar at 9% serve as the leading potential candidates according to market-implied odds. There is no certainty of an imminent vacancy, as these probabilities reflect ongoing market speculation regarding future judicial appointments.
- ›52% confirmation probability
- ›James Ho leading candidate at 16%
- ›Amul Tharpar at 9%
- ›Supreme Court vacancy speculation
What moved the line
- May 25Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?↑4pp32→36¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (37% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In politics
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.