Will there be a Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?
Kalshi
16 contracts
Polymarket
4 contracts
Analysis
Prediction markets assign a 38% probability that a new Supreme Court justice will be confirmed by December 31, 2026. While several prominent figures are being traded as potential successors, their individual probabilities remain low, ranging from 5% to 15%. This suggests that while there is some anticipation of a vacancy, the markets do not currently view any specific candidate as a clear frontrunner.
- ›38% confirmation probability by 2026-end
- ›Andrew Oldham 15% likelihood
- ›James Ho 12% likelihood
- ›Low market conviction in specific candidates
- ›Ongoing speculation on court turnover
Contracts
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026: International Court of Justice
Will LeBron James announce their retirement in 2026?: Before the start of the 2026-27 regular season
Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of The State of Louisiana in Louisiana v. Callais: Before 2026
Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Watson in Watson v. Republican National Committee?: Before August 2026
Will Aileen Cannon become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?: Aileen Cannon
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?
Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Trump in Trump v. Slaughter: Yes
Will Mitch McConnell resign his office early?: Before election day 2026
Will Nancy Pelosi resign her office early?: Before election day 2026
Will the next President confirm 0 Supreme Court justices?: 0
Will James Ho become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?: James Ho
Will US Supreme Court rule ban transgender girls and women from competing on female sports teams?: Before 2029
Will Aaron Rodgers announce their retirement in 2026?: Before the start of the 2026-27 regular season
Will the next President confirm 1 Supreme Court justices?: 1
Will Nancy Mace resign before the midterms?: Before election day 2026
What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear before Jan 2027?: a case primarily related to tariffs imposed by Donald Trump
Will Andrew Oldham become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?: Andrew Oldham
Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?
Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of The United States in United States v. Hemani: Before 2026