Will there be a Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 26% across 26 contracts. Kalshi at 46%, Polymarket at 11% — a 35pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
46%
11 contracts
Polymarket
11%
15 contracts
Cross-venue gap
35pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$186K
26 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
100 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 46¢ · Polymarket 11¢ · 35pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (11¢, 15 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (46¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
11 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 12% of their title tokens — “Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least” vs “Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least
Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 10 percentage points?
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL10
Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 6 percentage points?
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL6
Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 2 percentage points?
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL2
Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 8 percentage points?
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL8
Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 4 percentage points?
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL4
Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 12 percentage points?
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL12
Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 16 percentage points?
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL16
Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 14 percentage points?
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL14
Cluster 2
Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice
Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?: Patrick Bumatay
0xa79b29…db27
Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?: Amul Thapar
0xb251e2…36d9
Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?: James Ho
0xe04896…665f
Cluster 3
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?
0xae515e…6d58
Cluster 4
Will US Supreme Court rule ban transgender girls and women from competing on female sports teams
Will US Supreme Court rule ban transgender girls and women from competing on female sports teams?
KXBANTRANS-26
Cluster 5
Supreme Court vacancy in 2026
Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?
0x4bfb8b…6e3b
Cluster 6
Will Alexandre de Moraes leave Brazil's Supreme Court before Jan 1, 2027
Will Alexandre de Moraes leave Brazil's Supreme Court before Jan 1, 2027?
KXDEMORAESOUT-26SEP-27JAN01
Cluster 7
Will Donald Trump meet (including phone calls) any sitting Supreme Court justice before Jan 1, 2027
Cluster 8
Will Kyle Hawkins win the 2026 Texas Supreme Court Justice, Place 7 election
Will Kyle Hawkins win the 2026 Texas Supreme Court Justice, Place 7 election?
KXTXSUPREME7-26NOV03-KYLE
Cluster 9
Will Kristen Hawkins win the 2026 Texas Supreme Court Justice, Place 7 election
Will Kristen Hawkins win the 2026 Texas Supreme Court Justice, Place 7 election?
KXTXSUPREME7-26NOV03-KRISTEN
Cluster 10
Will Brett Busby win the 2026 Texas Supreme Court Justice, Place 8 election
Will Brett Busby win the 2026 Texas Supreme Court Justice, Place 8 election?
KXTXSUPREME8-26NOV03-BRETT
Cluster 11
Will Gisela D. Triana win the 2026 Texas Supreme Court Justice, Place 8 election
Will Gisela D. Triana win the 2026 Texas Supreme Court Justice, Place 8 election?
KXTXSUPREME8-26NOV03-GISELA
Analysis
There is currently no active prediction market data indicating an imminent resignation or retirement of a sitting Supreme Court justice in 2026. While markets are tracking other political events, such as a 65% implied probability that Donald Trump will interact with a sitting Supreme Court justice before the end of the year, there are no contracts specifically pricing judicial vacancy risk.
- ›No vacancy-specific markets
- ›Supreme Court engagement probability
- ›Political market activity
- ›General institutional stability
What moved the line
- Sep 18Will Kyle Hawkins win the 2026 Texas Supreme Court Justice, Place 7 election?↓23pp37→14¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Will Brett Busby win the 2026 Texas Supreme Court Justice, Place 8 election?↓20pp31→11¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Will Alexandre de Moraes leave Brazil's Supreme Court before Jan 1, 2027?↓15pp44→29¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Will Alexandre de Moraes leave Brazil's Supreme Court before Jan 1, 2027?↓12pp28→16¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 6 percentage points?↑10pp68→78¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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