Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027
Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027 is priced at 5¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 4¢ bid, 5¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
5¢ current
−4¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is formally removed from the office of the President of the United States by means of the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.
Outcome
Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$31K
Identifier
0x57daa520...322a
Jun 7, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · 11m ago
Implied probability
Bid
4¢
Ask
5¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$98
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$31K
Orderbook snapshot
4 / 5¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is formally removed from the office of the President of the United States by means of the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x57daa520…322a
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on kalshi at 27¢, -22¢ versus this page.
Event family
Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$31K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027 5¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.