SimpleFunctions

Serbian Parliamentary Election called before 2027

Serbian Parliamentary Election called before 2027 is priced at 61¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 44¢ bid, 81¢ ask, 37¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.

Price history

61¢ current

20¢
50¢75¢100¢
Apr 26, 2026May 27, 2026

Contract brief

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Serbian parliamentary election is officially scheduled between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." This market is about whether a date for the next Serbian parliamentary election is formally announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place on will have no effect on the resolution to this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Serbia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Outcome

Serbian Parliamentary Election called before 2027

Rank

Standalone

Leader

Range

Family volume

$34K

Identifier

0x5d6b15ab...4208

May 27, 2026, 5:38 AM UTC · 20m ago

Implied probability

61¢
Latest venue quote
May 27, 2026, 5:38 AM UTC · 20m ago

Bid

44¢

Ask

81¢

Spread

37¢

Reported volume

$34K

Family rank

Standalone

Standalone contract

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

Family volume

$34K

Orderbook snapshot

44 / 81¢

Polymarket
37¢ spread
BidSize
44¢50
43¢30
42¢50
40¢84
39¢51
23¢61
21¢267
20¢882
AskSize
81¢7
82¢36
83¢7
86¢42
87¢151
89¢97
90¢782
94¢51

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Serbian parliamentary election is officially scheduled between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." This market is about whether a date for the next Serbian parliamentary election is formally announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place on will have no effect on the resolution to this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Serbia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

Identifier

0x5d6b15ab…4208

SF Signal
SF Index
297.98
Regime
neutral

Cross-venue match

Similar contract on kalshi at 20¢, +41¢ versus this page.

View counterpart

Event family

Serbian Parliamentary Election called before 2027.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$34K

Outcomes

1

Highest price

Serbian Parliamentary Election called before 2027 68¢

Current share

100%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

94.3%

IY (No)

298.0%

Adj IY

298%

CRI

2

RV

1317%

VR

12.71

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

94.3%
298.0%
Adj IY
298%
2
RV
1317%
VR
12.71
IAR
3.4/h

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SimpleFunctions context

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.