SimpleFunctions

Sabrina Carpenter · Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year

Sabrina Carpenter is priced at 49¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 19¢ bid, 87¢ ask, 68¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 16 inside Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?.

Price history

49¢ current

+14¢
25¢50¢
May 10, 2026May 28, 2026

Contract brief

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any song by the listed artist is the number 1 song in any official weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs chart released for a data collection reference period entirely between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any song released with the listed artist as a primary artist will count, including songs released before 2026. If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them. Features, writing credits, production credits, or other forms of non-primary contributions to a song will not count. Artist attribution will be determined solely by the artists displayed by Billboard on the relevant chart. Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data collected in the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. The first Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the chart titled “Week of January 17, 2026” for a data collection reference period of January 2-8, 2026. The final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the Chart titled “Week of January 9, 2027” for a data collection reference period of December 25-31, 2026. Updates or revisions made within this market’s timeframe to the #1-ranked song on previously published Billboard Hot 100 charts will be considered; however, such updates will not disqualify a previously published Billboard Hot 100 #1 song from counting. If a Billboard Hot 100 #1 song is revised after initial publication, both the originally published #1 song and the revised #1 song will count for this market. Updates or revisions made after the release of the final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be the weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs charts published each week at https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/ and through other official Billboard channels.

Outcome

Sabrina Carpenter

Rank

#5 of 16

Leader

Mariah Carey 90¢

Range

4¢-90¢

Family volume

$104K

Identifier

0x7a53b692...fed8

May 28, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · 2m ago

Implied probability

49¢
Latest venue quote
May 28, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · 2m ago

Bid

19¢

Ask

87¢

Spread

68¢

Reported volume

$248

Family rank

#5 of 16

16 outcomes · Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

Family volume

$104K

Orderbook snapshot

19 / 87¢

Polymarket
68¢ spread
BidSize
19¢40
18¢10
17¢8
10¢5
9¢6
5¢117
4¢8
3¢10
AskSize
87¢60
88¢40
90¢23
94¢9
95¢40
97¢61
99¢44

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any song by the listed artist is the number 1 song in any official weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs chart released for a data collection reference period entirely between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any song released with the listed artist as a primary artist will count, including songs released before 2026. If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them. Features, writing credits, production credits, or other forms of non-primary contributions to a song will not count. Artist attribution will be determined solely by the artists displayed by Billboard on the relevant chart. Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data collected in the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. The first Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the chart titled “Week of January 17, 2026” for a data collection reference period of January 2-8, 2026. The final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the Chart titled “Week of January 9, 2027” for a data collection reference period of December 25-31, 2026. Updates or revisions made within this market’s timeframe to the #1-ranked song on previously published Billboard Hot 100 charts will be considered; however, such updates will not disqualify a previously published Billboard Hot 100 #1 song from counting. If a Billboard Hot 100 #1 song is revised after initial publication, both the originally published #1 song and the revised #1 song will count for this market. Updates or revisions made after the release of the final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be the weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs charts published each week at https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/ and through other official Billboard channels.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

Identifier

0x7a53b692…fed8

SF Signal
SF Index
214.85
Regime
neutral

Cross-venue match

Similar contract on kalshi at 56¢, -7¢ versus this page.

View counterpart

Event family

Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$104K

Outcomes

16

Highest price

Mariah Carey 90¢

Current share

0%

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

Mariah Carey

polymarket · 0x32c9802fd247d6049bd22b038b245d3d92be89c8bdc6e3c06760215643693461

90¢
$2K$16

Future

polymarket · 0xf9ab3829eb85b2846f8e4f8d02e3fd035381309c3b5d7a1a04e41e9cba74fd82

55¢
$7K$0

Travis Scott

polymarket · 0x39bc9d0f88c474302e486a3b1c804dc4d0d39747b84564d9c8328aebded11cb3

51¢
$5K$33

Playboi Carti

polymarket · 0x9acd1fad62009e8eaa01a55b680cd2157b62addaeb281e9592ab76d20799643b

50¢
$7K$0

Sabrina Carpenter

polymarket · 0x7a53b692e506d85b2c5d6abcf6d50ec7a76f851764269a1b1bc076dc1b87fed8

44¢
$248$0

Luke Combs

polymarket · 0x51eb1fc36e97b2aebe47baf0ff55a86c280d41cbb0d250a5eadceedc4f6d81d8

37¢
$2K$00.2

Kendrick Lamar

polymarket · 0x0cac4e851f08527d142c537bd80c3c0ccc642e59928354c76f0834c018f8c029

36¢
$4K$255

Billie Eilish

polymarket · 0x892d3a913a5ce5fac86c88eb362b7858bfa866f579be5f184bf6cddcb587f6c6

31¢
$40K$0

Rihanna

polymarket · 0x0e3dadcf791ff5c1b63055ac7401d5994e5f8cac2c423d86ef86bbd40821914c

28¢
$636$10

Zach Bryan

polymarket · 0xe90f835a4874a9632d1848f0664cfbb984b2ac0232c0c331988efc9a80e4d56d

16¢
$827$470.1

A$AP Rocky

polymarket · 0xcb9afce56f5c231235c2e8e93acb3783d8860bd20a0949f55239c3372acc2693

13¢
$2K$0

Kanye West

polymarket · 0x3297ab8538e92f2d798ed9cf0036d7306c3bd1dd71c2a6d76756d3b838bf2832

11¢
$707$0

Frank Ocean

polymarket · 0xade5d24a028335c1af2e80dec01422a656226c584455e6852189c39cfebdb830

10¢
$9K$01.3

The Weeknd

polymarket · 0xbc4dbe5037661f27535ffa738b693d6003053a87c9ee527988d8d4a880a106a9

10¢
$5K$0

Jack Harlow

polymarket · 0x33af2eb0a55b053264f88a29977837e500c9a4aabdd1da9fcf1ce1428d6aa903

6¢
$9K$0

Doja Cat

polymarket · 0xe45c05ece77ebe05f9ad325001ac226cb9c862b077030b65286891bef5b4859c

4¢
$10K$0

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

214.8%

IY (No)

132.6%

Adj IY

215%

CRI

1

RV

3925%

VR

22.77

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

214.8%
132.6%
Adj IY
215%
1
RV
3925%
VR
22.77
IAR
3.2/h
Overround
8.0%

Odds pages

Related prediction questions

Browse odds

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Blogmarkets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Conceptmethodology

Resolution Risk Premium: Pricing the Rule, Not the Outcome

When the resolution rule is fuzzy, the price is the market's estimate of how the rule will be interpreted, not the outcome's probability. Three case studies and the discount math.

Conceptmethodology

Maker / Taker Regime in Prediction Markets: How to Read the Orderbook State

Three regime states (maker-dominated, taker-dominated, neutral) and how to read which one a Kalshi or Polymarket contract is in. Strategy follows regime, not thesis.

Opinionanalysis

Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets

Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.

Opinioncomparison

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)

Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.

Learnanalysis

Yield Curve (Prediction Markets)

A prediction-market yield curve plots implied yield against τ-days across all sibling contracts in an event family. Borrowed from bond desks, enabled by cycle clustering.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.