Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year
Leader sits at 89% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 80%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Drake
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
80¢
Ariana Grande
Spread
9pp
contested
24h volume
$51
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
Venue
Polymarket
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year
Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?: Drake
0x14db5f…509b
Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?: Post Malone
0x441f95…1e87
Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?: Peso Pluma
0x6c5a6d…cd51
Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?: Morgan Wallen
0x459927…9bc3
Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?: Lil Baby
0xc18a8e…001c
Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?: Jack Harlow
0x33af2e…a903
Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?: Future
0xf9ab38…fd82
Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?: Billie Eilish
0x892d3a…f6c6
Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?: Ariana Grande
0xa46253…bb5b
Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?: Kanye West
0x3297ab…2832
Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?: Tyler, The Creator
0xa14cc6…768c
Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?: The Weeknd
0xbc4dbe…06a9
Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?: SZA
0xadbe61…e7ff
Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?: Rihanna
0x0e3dad…914c
Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?: Playboi Carti
0x9acd1f…643b
Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?: Luke Combs
0x51eb1f…81d8
Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?: Kendrick Lamar
0x0cac4e…c029
Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?: Ed Sheeran
0x8249c9…858e
Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?: Doja Cat
0xe45c05…859c
Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?: A$AP Rocky
0xcb9afc…2693
Analysis
This market estimates the likelihood that at least one artist from the listed group will achieve a Billboard #1 song during 2026. The 90% probability reflects expectations that chart-toppers emerge regularly, particularly given Drake's historical dominance in reaching the top position. The probability is primarily driven by artists' current streaming momentum, release schedules, and historical chart performance. Major factors include whether established artists release competitive new material and how emerging tracks perform against competition. Resolution depends on actual Billboard Hot 100 chart data throughout 2026, with outcomes clarifying as the year progresses and artists release new work.
- ›Drake has reached #1 multiple times historically; current market pricing at 91¢ suggests traders view his odds as highest
- ›Mariah Carey is priced at 90¢ despite 'All I Want for Christmas Is You' peaking in December—repeat seasonal performance would be the primary #1 path
- ›Kendrick Lamar at 44¢indicates lower near-term probability, contingent on new album release timing and commercial reception
- ›The 19-contract structure means outcome depends on whether any single artist achieves #1 status—not the quantity of #1 songs across the group
- ›Volume concentrated on Drake (90¢/day volume $50) versus zero volume on most competitors suggests disagreement about which artist is most likely to top charts
What moved the line
- May 3Lil Baby↑21pp10→31¢ · Polymarket
- May 6SZA↓15pp41→26¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Tyler, The Creator↓15pp27→12¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Doja Cat↓14pp26→12¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Kendrick Lamar↓14pp36→22¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.